Royal Challengers Bangalore v Mumbai Indians
Saturday 9 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
RCB boosted to the Max
Bangalore have two wins from three. Early days. But the manner of their two victories could prove to be important. They have defeated Rajasthan and Kol-kata, two of the more impressive teams in the first exchanges.
It should also be noted that they won both when chasing, giving weight to the idea of a toss bias. Perhaps we the jury should sit out for a while yet.
What is not good news is the delayed arrival of Josh Hazlewood. All the other Aussies are playing and available but not him. They badly need his expertise.
At least Glenn Maxwell has arrived and he should make his first start. With David Willey and Sherfane Rutherford at Nos 4 and 5 last time out they badly need extra batting depth. Rutherford probably misses out.
Probable XI: Du Plessis, Rawat, Kohli, Maxwell, Shahbaz, Karthik, Willey, Hasaranga, Harshal, Siraj, Deep
Mumbai Indians have lost three from three. Of course there is never a panic with the Indians. They always start that way don't they? Well, it might not be a bad idea if they realised they were in a bit of a crises.
Rohit Sharma, the skip, can't seem to buy a run, they have already discarded Tim David, the lower-order finisher, and Basil Thampi still gets a game. We've said it before but they look light on a bowler because of their supposedly shred move to splurge on a player who can't play - Jofra Archer. Picks liek Thampi and Jaydev Unadkat are baragin bucket pick-ups.
Dewald Brevis came in for David and batted at No 3. One wonders whether that's a smart move considering they have the best No 3 in the business back after injury in Sky Yadav.
Probable XI: Rohit, Ishan, Brevis, Yadav, Varma, Pollard, Sams, Murugan, Bumrah, Mills, Thampi
There have been three matches so far at Pune. The first0-innings scores (most recent first) read: 161-171-210. The last two were won by the chaser.
Historically there is no toss bias and the par score batting first is to bust a smidge over 170. But Mumbai didn't manage that score against Kolkata, posting only that 161 and going down by five wickets.
Both teams to score 170 is 13/10 with Sportsbook. For the 180 it is 5/2. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Rare Mumbai chance
Golden rule of IPL since day one has been to avoid RCB when odds-on. And here they are at 1.8810/11 against Mumbai, an infinitely superior franchise since day one.
That means we have the opportunity to bet Mumbai at an incredibly rare odds-against. They are chalked up at 2.0811/10.
Granted they have issues as we have already discussed. And RCB are possibly at the strongest they will be this season given doubts about Hazlewood's participation.
Yet it seems too good an opportunity to pass up. It is arguable that no team with Messrs Kishan, Yadav, Pollard and Bumrah should be odds-against. And we have this as choice affair. Bet the match odds here.
There are no standout bets on the win rate data when perusing top bat markets apart from Faf Du Plessis at a boosted 11/4 with Sportsbook. We had been hoping for an edge on Glenn Maxwell but we need 5/1 and we're only getting 4s.
For Mumbai Pollard looks big at 9s, although he is no longer value on win rate. Rohit badly needs a score and is also boosted to 11/4.
Jasprit Bumrah is 2/1 for top Mumbai bowler and his death-bowling counterpart Harshal Patel probably deserves favourite status over Wanindu Hasaranga instead of being priced at 5/2. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
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