Royal Challengers Bangalore v Delhi Capitals: Karthik underrated to top

• RCB vulnerable defending

• Maxwell and Karthik bets

• Warner a problem for DC

Royal Challengers Bangalore v Delhi Capitals
Saturday 15 April, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Bangalore are two defeats from three but mitigating circumstances are a horrendous injury list. Rajat Patidar, Reece Topley, Will Jacks and Josh Hazlewood have all been lost.

They could be boosted by the availability of Wanindu Hasaranga for this one, though, with Michael Bracewell, David Willey or Wayne Parnell missing out on a start. They could be smarter with their Impact Player sub. Mohammad Siraj may drop in or out for a batter at some stage.

Possible XI: Kohli, Du Plessis, Karthik, Maxwell, Shahbaz, Rawat, Hasaranga, Willey, Harshal, Siraj, Sharma

Delhi have lost four from four. Their malaise is no secret. David Warner is costing them with a disgraceful strike rate of 114. Just as he did previously with Sunrisers. Until he bucks up or is dropped Delhi go nowhere.

Mitchell Marsh has returned after his wedding while Khaleel Ahmed has done a hamstring. Chetaan Sakariya could get a bowl.

Possible XI: Warner, Shaw, Pandey, Sarfaraz, Powell, Axar, Porel, Kuldeep, Nortje, Sakariya, Mustafizur

Pitch report

We've had first-innings scores of 171 and 212 in Bangalore so far. Prior to the tournament the first-innings average since 2017 was 169. Bangalore are averaging nine an over with the bat and Delhi are conceding 9.3 with the ball so if we're playing overs on the par line it would seem wise to do so if RCB bat first. Sportsbook have boosted both teams for 190 to 4/1.

How to play

One of the golden rules of IPL betting is to swerve RCB when odds-on. They are 1.758/11 for this one. It's a mighty short price and it is impossible to recommend taking it, particularly with a toss bias. Both matches so far were won by the chaser, boosting the bias to more than 60%.

So Delhi may be worth the risk if the flip goes their way, although we may need to be aware that bigger than 2.305/4 could be around at the break. It might also be hugely useful if Warner was dismissed as cheaply as possible.

Tops value

Glenn Maxwell has been boosted to 6/1 for top bat with Sportsbook which seems risky as he has been batting at No 4. We also note Dinesh Karthik at 13/1 when he has been batting as high as No 3. It might be worth dutching those two. Karthik has the best record of RCB's top four against this probable attack. We await Sportsbook's prices for top Delhi bat.