Sunrisers Hyderabad v Rajasthan Royals
Monday 27 September, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Nothing new under the Sun
Sunrisers have one win in nine. Defeat by Punjab was their second since restart. It is a fantasy that they are suddenly going to morph into an improved team because they make no attempt to improve.
They pick the same clogging middle-order players and adopt the same tactics every match. And for some reason they expect a different result. David Warner is a classic example. The whole world can see he is shot.
Sunrisers, eventually, realised it in part one. And yet they have reinstated him. Kedar Jadav batting ahead of Abdul Samad is another bonkers call.
If they wished they could change it up. Open with Rashid Khan for an example. Picking Jason Roy is a simple, and hardly drastic, switch.
Possible XI Rashid, Roy, Pandey, Williamson, Samad, Holder, Saha, Kumar, Sandeep, Khaleel, Kaul
Royals on a run
The Royals got a nosebleed at the break against Delhi Capitals. Set an apparently gettable 155 to win, they may have started to feel dizzy at the heady prospect of going third. Capitals soon cut them down to size.
It was a shame for them because Royals had reversed their fortunes with the ball, being efficient and miserly. But, alas, they reversed their fortunes with the bat, too, and they just never got going in response.
Tabraiz Shamsi came in for Chris Morris against Capitals, a decision which could be reversed after the spinner was pricey. Evin Lewis was also left out.
Probable XI Livingstone, Jaiswal, Samson, Miller, Lomror, Parag, Tewatia, Shamsi, Tiyagi, Sakariya, Rahman
Rajasthan will be pleased to be back in Dubai having posted 185 against Punjab. They will also be confident of a score of 160 or more against Sunrisers, who they took for a massive 220 in their last meeting in Delhi.
That was out of character though from Sunrisers. Despite their batting issues, they have an economy rate of 7.4 in this tournament. And they have been consistent down the years in the field.
The Royals have an economy rate of 8.5. Such numbers lend weight to the idea that this is another game to take low scores. There is little fear, for example, of laying either for 150 or more.
Sunrisers need intent
Royals are 1.728/11 and Sunrisers 2.285/4. If both teams field similar XIs to their last outings, those prices would seem about right.
However, the game should be decided by intent. Royals have it. Can Sunrisers be bothered to find some? Unless they have a drastic change up to try to force enough momentum and confidence to win all of their remaining matches, they are done for.
One suspects they were never really up for the Dubai leg. But they could be worth a nibble if they make some of the changes discussed, chiefly axing Warner and giving Samad his head.
Liam Livingstone opened for Royals last time and Sportsbook are on to it, making him 5/2 for top bat. We still fancy the likes of Riyan Parag at 14s and Rahul Tewatia at 17s, though. Sanju Samson aside, who is 11/4, there's not a lot to beat.
Manish Pandey is 4/1 and that is bang on for two-year win rate. Have a look for 9/2 in-play. We note Rashid's price of 40/1. Any wager would have to be on the rationale that he 'might' be promoted. He has not top scored in 33 matches.
Jason Holder is a stand-out wager at 4s for top SRH bowler. He has been returning at a rate of 665 so he should be shorter than 4/1.
There's also a decent bet on sixes. Rajasthan have hit 62 in nine this tournament, Sunrisers 52 in nine. And yet it is Royals who are outsiders at 11/10 with Sportsbook. It really should be the other way round.