Rajasthan Royals v Sunrisers Hyderabad IPL Tips: Rajasthan spinners to thrive on slow pitch

• Last chance saloon for Sunrisers?

• Are Royals imploding?

• Unders on sixes a must-bet

Rajasthan Royals v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sunday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

We are at the stage of the season where almost every game is of critical importance. Here, Rajasthan urgently need a win to turn around a strong campaign that is suddenly faltering, whereas Sunrisers really need to win to retain any realistic hope of reaching the play-offs.

Rajasthan title bid faltering badly

Both have won only one of their last five. Earlier, Rajasthan looked as likely as anyone for the title. Thanks to their earlier performances, last year's runners-up remain bang in contention, clinging on to fourth spot, courtesy of a superior net run-rate than three other teams.

Nevertheless, alarm bells are ringing. Thursday's thrashing by Gujurat having been bowled out for 118, was nothing short of disastrous.

Time for spinners to thrive?

While recent form is a huge worry, hope springs eternal as pitches wear and spinners become ever more important. Few sides can match their pairing of Yuzvendra Chahal and Ravi Ashwin, while Adam Zampa is in reserve. They certainly deserve to start 1.75 favourites against these opponents.

Sunrisers continue to be bitterly disappointing. Failure to chase what seemed an easy total in-running against Kolkata last time leaves them in bottom place. The squad remains with potential but the line-up unsettled. Their batters have badly underperformed and replacements aren't obvious.

Low scores expected again at Jaipur

This will be the fourth match of the season at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur. Two produced sub-150 first innings totals - low even by historically low-scoring standards at this ground - including that 118 from Royals on Thursday. The other, however, saw them hit 202 - the highest ever IPL score at Jaipur.

Cricinfo report that this match will be played on the same pitch as Thursday. In fairness, Gujurat's quick chase of the total demonstrated the potential for runs, but we should expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 44% of matches here produced sub-160 1st Innings Runs totals and only 22% were 170 or higher.

I'm wary about putting up a pre-innings bet, because the lines may be much lower than projected. Therefore I will simply advise placing a lay order for the 170 or More line at 1.7.

Total Sixes, alternatively, are definitely an 'Unders' play at 13.5. This bet landed in all 18 matches during our study sample.

Back this Royals quartet

Regarding the tops markets, today's two #OddsBoost batsmen are Jos Buttler and Mayank Agarwal, enhanced to 23/10 and 4/1 respectively. Whilst Jos is probably due a big one, and may produce in this critically important match, that is a very short price considering he's scored 145 fewer than Yashasvi Jaiswal (a 7/2 chance here) this season.

Jaiswal certainly appeals at 13/2 for Top Match Batsman. His 442 run tally is 200 ahead of the third highest scorer on either side (Sanju Samson), while no Sunrisers batsman has hit 200.

I'll add an alternative for Top Rajasthan Batsman too. Dhruv Jurel has been a revelation this season, hitting at 183 as either an impact substitute or at number six more recently. He certainly deserves to retain that position and could plausibly be promoted. 22/1 looks too big, especially in a low scoring game where thirty-odd may well be enough to win.

Finally, given that Rashid Khan won Man of the Match on this pitch last time, it could pay to follow the spinners. Bowlers have been winning at least their share lately. Rajasthan definitely look to have the edge here, so let's dutch Yuzvendra Chahal and Ravi Ashwin.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty