Punjab Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore: Death bowling to cost RCB

• Punjab have a good head-to-head record against RCB

• RCB death bowling a real concern

• Glenn Maxwell worthy of consideration on numerous markets

Thursday April 20, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Team News

Punjab have pretty much one man to thank for winning on Saturday.

Chasing 160, they kept on losing wickets and looked dead and buried until Sikandar Raza somehow, somehow, managed to keep finding the boundary when needed.

The big-hitting Shahrukh Khan added the finishing touches with an excellent 23 off 10 but it was Raza's persistence and skill that got them into a winning position.

The Zimbabwean really needed that because he's had a quiet time of it so far at the IPL after a stellar year in white-ball cricket for his country and a superb T20 World Cup. Having also taken a wicket to go with his 57 and you can see why he's such a valuable asset.

That moved Punjab up to fifth and that seems about right for a team who may prove to be pretty inconsistent all season.

Skipper Shikhar Dhawan missed the last match with an injury but should be ok to play here.

Possible XI: Dhawan, Singh, Short, H Singh, Raza, Curran, Sharma, Khan, Brar, Rabada, Arshdeep

RCB Team news

That RCB traded as favourites chasing 227 tells you just how well they were going in a huge chase, so credit to their batsmen. That they were chasing such a big total in the first place tells you just how poorly they bowled to begin with.

The only man to emerge with any credit with the ball was Mohammad Siraj, who took 1-30. The next best bowlers (Hasaranga, Glenn Maxwell) went for 10.5 an over. Harshal Patel was going at 10.8 before bowling two no-balls for height in the final over and being taken out of the attack.

So death bowling continues to be an issue for RCB and you're not going to win an IPL until you fix that.

With the bat, Faf Du Plessis (62 off 33) and Glenn Maxwell (76 off 36) were immense in trying to keep up with the run rate.

But both played one big shot too many, the same type of shot that had them in the hunt to to begin with, and no-one could finish what they'd started. Dinesh Karthik's 28 off 14 had them in contention going into the last couple but it wasn't to be.

A shame for them and a shame for us because we had RCB to win in a match where both teams scored 190+ runs at 6/1. The first barrier was easily cleared, the second should have been, too.

David Willey could come back for Wayne Parnell as a like-for-like replacement.

Possible XI: Kohl, du Plessis, Lomror, Maxwell, Ahmed, Karthik, Parnell/Willey, Hasaranga, Patel, Siraj, Vyshak

Pitch report

Two matches at Mohali have so far produced first innings scores of 191/5 and 153/8 so very different sorts of totals. The first was defended, the second chased with just a ball to spare.

Historically, the average first innings score is 165 with the chaser winning 32 out of 57, and the team batting first winning 25 times. So, advantage to the chaser.

As has been the trend over the last few matches, both will want to chase but anything above 170 may prove to be pretty competitive.

How to play

We've now reached the inevitable stage of the season where RCB are favourites for matches they shouldn't be.

Punjab have one more win than them this season after the same number of matches, have a 17/13 winning record against them over 30 matches and are at home. They're also fresh from a good win while RCB will be scratching their heads about how they conceded so many and ended up not getting over the line from an advantageous position when they batted themselves.

We would rather Punjab chase because it's a chasing ground and we don't trust RCB to defend anything around par.

But we can't have it all our own way and with a strong bowling line-up boosted by the great Kagiso Rabada, we think Punjab can defend 170 or more against a side over-reliant on their Big 3 of Kohli, Maxwell and du Plessis.

There's nothing wrong with backing a wrong outsider pre-match; the flip going our way would be a bonus.

Punjab at 2.166/5 it is.

Punjab Top Batsman

Backing Sikandar Raza at 9/1 to be Punjab top batsman is a good bet.

He was 8/1 ahead of winning last time with that 57 when we weren't sure if he was even going to play, or where he'd bat if he did.
He came in at five, is sure of his place now and may even be promoted to four this time.

Dhawan (boosted to 5/2) is always a threat and Matthew Short (4/1) has shown signs of promise without really kicking on. But if he can get in around the 8th over or earlier, Raza could have every chance of top bat honours again, at a price that's one point bigger than last time.

Maxwell on the markets

Plenty of tempting bets on the one-of-a-kind-Maxwell.

Having been top RCB bat on Monday with 76, you can get 5/1 on him doing the same again.

He's only ever going to play one way and if it's his day he can score as quickly as anyone, so batting at four shouldn't put you off. He's also 10/1 for top match batsman, which he missed out on to Devon Conway's 83 the other day.

The fact he hasn't bowled that much somewhat puts us off the 6/1 that he could be RCB top bowler; but he's sometimes given three overs if he's going well and at that price, a tie would still see you in clover.

He's also 10/1 for man-of-the-match and with the sort of impact he can have on games, that can't be discounted either, even if we think Punjab have the upper hand here.