Punjab Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders Tips: Lock in a bet on Lockie

• Bairstow and Rabada big absences for Punjab

• KKR have won 20/30 in this fixture

• Lockie Ferguson a big price for KKR Top Batsman

Punjab Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
Saturday April 1, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Team news

Jonny Bairstow won't be taking part in this year's IPL as he continues to recover from that broken leg sustained in a freak accident while playing golf.

That means an opportunity to open for 22-year old Prabhsimran Singh, who will also take the gloves.

Good news for Punjab fans: his T20 career strike rate is a healthy 137.94 from 41 matches including a highly commendable nine fifties, to go with a century. Bad news: he's only ever played six IPL matches across six seasons.

Sam Curran, the IPL's most expensive player ever will bowl at the death and be expected to swing the bat at seven, or potentially higher.

The brilliant Kagiso Rabada is unavailable due to international commitments. That could mean that Zimbabwean Sikandar Raza, arguably the most underrated player in international cricket, gets a go.

Possible XI: Dhawan, Prabhsimran, Rajapaksa, Livingstone, Jitesh, Sharukh, Raza, S Curran, Harpreet, R Chahar, Arshdeep

Kolkata Team news

There's no Shreyas Iyer for this one. Or for the foreseeable future. The skipper and gun batsman is injured and will miss most, or all, of KKR's campaign.

It's a huge blow on two counts and stand-in skipper Ntish Rana, with some Indian state captaincy experience but no IPL captaincy experience, has his hands full here.

Lockie Ferguson was somewhat surprisingly traded by last year's winners Gujarat and ended up at KKR, who he has played for before. His electric pace could be crucial.

Andre Russell is back for another big payday this year. One wonders whether it's his last.

Possible XI: Venkatesh, Gurbaz, N Rana, Jagadeesan, Rinku, Russell, Narine, Shardul, Ferguson, Chakarathaty, Umesh

Pitch report

We're at the Mohali PCA Stadium for this one.

In 55 matches played here in the IPL, 31 were won by the side batting second, so chasing should be the way to go.

The average first innings score is 165 so anything less than that and you'd expect the chaser to be favourites at the break. Both sides are arguably better suited to chase anyway.

How to play

It's always hard to take strong opinions before a ball has been bowled in anger but there's one stat that's hard to ignore: in 30 matches between the two, KKR have won 20 of them.

That alone suggests KKR are a shade of value as marginal 2.0621/20 outsiders, the absence of Punjab's best bowler in Rabada just adding fuel to the fire in terms of that argument.

If Punjab bat first, post 165 or less and you can get 1.910/11 or better on KKR at the break, that could be a decent bet.

KKR Top Bowler

Lockie Ferguson is 4/1 to be KKR's top bowler. Big price.

Last season he wasn't quite at his best with 'just' 12 wickets in 13 outings. But a domestic T20 career strike rate of 18.4 suggests he's a better bowler than that and if there's one thing that opposition batsmen won't be wanting to see on their first match of the season, it's raw pace. Last year he was the quickest bowler in the tournament.

Ridiculously, at those odds, he's seventh favourite. Russell is unlikely to bowl four overs, while Shakib Al-Hasan and Tim Southee probably won't play. It's a decent wager.

Man-of-the-match

Sooner or later this IPL season, Andre Russell will either be hobbling around the field or sidelined altogether.

Nothing new there with his troublesome knees and too many years of trying to do too much as a three-dimensional cricketer.

But until that happens, he'll be determined to make his mark.

With the opportunity to take cheap wickets at the death or win the game single-handedly with the bat in a game where we think KKR have the edge, 12/1 is a good price on him being man-of-the-match.