Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals IPL Tips: Back Warner at boosted 7/2 for top DC bat

• Pitch may be flat

• Warner boosted for top DC bat

• Livingstone value at 6s for PK runs

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals
Saturday 23 March, 10.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals team news

Punjab must leave out some strong overseas batters. Only one from Jonny Bairstow, Matt Short and Rilee Rossouw may be able to play. Kagiso Rabada and Sam Curran look like locks while Liam Livingstone has been remarkably consistent with the bat.

Possible XI: Dhawan, P Singh, Bairstow, Livingstone, Taide, Jitesh, S Curran, Harshal, Rabada, Chahar, Arshdeep

Delhi have lost elite bowler Lungi Ngidi but replaced him with batter Jake Fraser-McGurk. In reality, the Aussie is coming in for Harry Brook. Rishabh Pant is back and may even keep wicket from game one. They need to keep Anrich Nortje fit.

Possible XI: Warner, Shaw/Dhull, M Marsh, Fraser-McGurk, Pant, L Yadav, Axar, Kuldeep, Mukesh, Khaleel, Nortje

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals pitch report

The Mullanpur stadum has replaced IS Bindra Stadium, Mohali as Punjab's home ground. It should still be a road, though. In the most recent Syed Mushtaq tournament, it ranked fourth for run rate. More than 175 was busted five in nine and we should be able to play overs at that mark.

More than 179 could be on at 1.9010/11. We may prefer Punjab to bat first as they were ranked third for batting power last season with Delhi bottom. DC were pretty tight with the ball though at No 4.

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals match odds

Punjab are 2.0421/20 with Delhi 1.9420/21. It's right that the match odds market struggles to split the pair. These look likely to be two teams struggling at the bottom of the table.

If Punjab were to bat first they could get the win thanks to scoreboard pressure and that Delhi go-low with the bat.

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals Exchange strategy

That Delhi propensity to struggle for fast starts is an option on the Betfair Exchange in-play. David Warner, although reliable for runs, hasn't got them very quickly.

So we could count on Delhi's price drifting at the start of the innings. Transversely, getting decent numbers on their runs lines by hoping for late acceleration may be a good strategy for them.

They could add 50 or 60 at the death with Pant, Lalit Yadav and Axar Patel decent hitters.

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals player bets

With a win rate of 42% on top-bat in the last two years, Warner is a bet at a boosted 7/24.50. For Punjab, Livingstone has been returning at 30% over the same filter. Sportsbook go 6/17.00.

With the ball, Kagiso Rabada is a winner 36.8% of the time so we're happy to play at 3/14.00 for top Punjab bowler.

He's the same price as Arshdeep who wins at 14.2%.

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