Ed Hawkins previews the first of Sunday's IPL double header with runs expected at short-boundary Sharjah
"Stretching back to the 2019 IPL Warner has a ‘to score a fifty’ rate of 55%. This also makes the 11/5 about a half-century value"
Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sunday October 4 11.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Mumbai have won three in a row after losing their opener against Chennai Super Kings. Last time out they saw off the challenge of Kings XI with a clinical display that befitted their holder status.
Batting first they set up a platform for Kieron Pollard and Hardik Pandya to launch a brutal assault, propelling them to 191 for four. Their bowlers were tight from ball one and never looked in danger.
We still think they are shy on spin threat and we don't think they are making best use of their overseas players. But that probably means they are likely to improve as the tournament progresses. Ominous for everyone else.
Possible XI Rohit, De Kock, Yadav, Kishan, Pollard, Hardik, Krunal, Pattinson, Chahar, Boult, Bumrah.
Sunrisers have won two on the spin but significant doubts remain about their tactics and their selection. They got away with one on Friday against a grim Chennai outfit which probably means the changes they need to make will be delayed.
Kane Williamson personifies Sunrisers' problem. They are steadfast in trying to keep wickets in hand instead of unleashing overseas power players like Mohammad Nabi or Fabian Allen. Priyam Garg and Abhshek Sharma's rescue mission against Chennai suggests they are one pick from being a very strong team.
Bhuv Kumar is expected to miss out with a groin injury so Sidd Kaul could come back into the XI. But oh for Williamson being replaced by Nabi or Allen to give them aggression with the bat.
Probable XI Warner, Bairstow, Pandey, Williamson, Garg, Abhishek, Samad, Rashid, Khaleel, Kaul, Natajaran.
Last year head-to-heads
MI 162-5 (De Kock 69*, Khaleel 3-42) tied SRH 162-5 (Pandey 71*, Hardik 2-20)
MI 136-7 (Pollard 46*, Kaul 2-34) defended SRH 92
Overall MI 7 SRH 7
The Sharjah surface had produced two scores of 200 or more before the Saturday afternoon encounter between Kolkata and Delhi. Or rather, the short boundaries had. In time we expect runscoring to get tougher but for now bat should dominate ball. Nine an over is a minimum for this venue.
Kings can trade short
Mumbai are 5/71.69 with Sunrisers 11/82.38. On form and respective strengths, Mumbai are fair favourites but is the pitch a leveller here?
Sunrisers struggle for power on 'normal' boundary sizes but they will be getting more value for their shots than Mumbai. The clouts that bounce once for four will go for six at this venue. Mumbai won't get extra points for hitting it further.
The toss is key. Mumbai are solid in the chase and Sunrisers shaky. An ideal trade would be for Sunrisers to post 180 or more and allow us to look for chunkier numbers on the Indians, taking both sides.
If Sunrisers chase they could come as short as 4/51.80 in Mumbai's innings but expect a late charge from Mumbai from the 17th. That's an exit strategy.
David Warner is a conundrum. He came into this tournament with a 41% win rate on top bat from last year's IPL. That now stands at 31%. Sportsbook have boosted him to 13/5, which makes him value on win rate? But has he gone at the game? He looks ponderous and unsure.
Stretching back to the 2019 IPL Warner has a 'to score a fifty' rate of 55%. This also makes the 11/5 about a half-century value. If he can't score big runs in Sharjah, where can he?
Jonny Bairstow will also be a fancy for top-bat honours at 16/5. But there is also an edge on the 11/4 for him to score a fifty. It's under two points, however, so not as big as Warner. Going for fifties for top-bat picks often makes sense on bat-dominated surfaces.
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