Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Comfortable winning margins for chasers can pay at the Wankhede

• Mumbai bid for fourth straight win

• Back late runs at the Wankhede

• Sikandar Raza to star again

Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings
Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Five time champions Mumbai Indians are finding their groove after a terrible start, winning three on the spin to move into sixth place and play-off contention. They're clear favourites at 1.78 to make it four against Punjab in Saturday afternoon's clash at the Wankhede.

Mumbai remain unbalanced

A stellar, aggressive batting line-up is saving them. Cameron Green propelled them to an above-par 192 in their last match. However their bowling remains fundamentally weak, especially without Jofra Archer. Of the regular bowlers, only Piyush Chawla has an economy below 9.0.

Punjab look weak without Dhawan

Nevertheless the betting is surely right to favour them, with home advantage, against a Punjab side shorn of their injured talisman. Averaging 116.5 from his four games, Shikhar Dhawan was key to their relatively strong start. Without him, the batting looks very weak. Only sometimes overseas pick Bhanuka Rajapaska averages above 22 and, like others in this line-up, hasn't been scoring nearly fast enough.

That said, Punjab's bowling is clearly superior so the match may simply turn on whether batters or bowlers have the edge. In any case, batting pre-toss at this ground is a poor plan of attack. Both matches at the Wankhede so far were won by the chaser, who have a 59/41% edge over the past five years.

Back runs after first strategic timeout

This is a ground, where very big totals can be achieved due to the very short boundaries. However, 200+ scores are relatively rare, occurring in only 12% of first innings. 53% came in at 170 or above - a lower return than the majority of this year's IPL grounds.

It is therefore unwise to play 'overs' at the start of the innings when bowlers often get assistance with the new ball.

Rather, wait until the first strategic timeout. At this stage, beating the par overs line requires around ten runs per over. That is no big ask if the team has plenty of wickets left.

The sixes line is correctly high at 16.5. 61% of matches here produce 15 or more maximums.

Given that chaser bias, a value play could involve the Winning Margin market. Here, the lines to win by six wickets or more are always high because the flipside is a win for the bowling side of 51+ runs. Here's lets try a combination of bets on both sides to win by the 6/7 options at odds ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

Today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Rohit Sharma and Dhawan (who reportedly won't play). Their odds to topscore for their side are enhanced to 7/2 and 11/4 respectively.

Raza and Arshdeep rate decent value

A couple of bets appeal on the Punjab side. First, 9/1 about Sikandar Raza for Top Punjab batsman is big. Their middle-order may very well be called upon to rescue the innings, and Raza must surely play after missing their latest defeat. Previously he was top scorer and man of the match.

For Top Punjab Bowler, Arshdeep Singh is always a solid pick. He bowls early, (a good time to do so at the Wankhede), and at the death. Take the 11/4.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty