Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad IPL Tips: Mumbai to salvage pride

Paul Krishnamurty
16 May 2022
3:00 min read

Sunrisers Hyderabad captain Kane Williamson

Kane Williamson has had a disastrous season

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The battle to avoid finishing bottom is hotting up as Mumbai improve upon a disastrous season. Paul Krishnamurty says they can sustain momentum against a Sunrisers side who have lost five on the bounce...

"Mumbai must start favourites. They've won three of their last four matches... Sunrisers have lost five on the spin, four of which were by comprehensive margins."

Back Mumbai Indians @ 1.910/11

Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Tuesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

When the season began, Mumbai were the tournament favourites and Sunrisers favourites to finish bottom. With two games left for each, Mumbai are in bottom place. Sunrisers are two places higher, but they could yet finish bottom if losing their last two matches. Those positions are entirely fair. Neither side has been anywhere near good enough.

Mumbai have momentum

Form-wise, Mumbai must start favourites. They've won three of their last four matches, salvaging some pride after losing their first eight. They can take solace from this being a transitional year, during which some bright prospects have emerged. Tilak Varma in particular and Dewald Brevis on occasion. Tim David is a good signing and if Jofra Archer is fit next year, they may be competitive again.

However, ultimately their stars haven't performed. Rohit Sharma's 218 runs from 12 appearances is an absymal return by his lofty standards. Kieron Pollard may well be finished at this level.

Sunrisers are on a terrible run

I felt Sunrisers were by far the weakest side at the start and stand by that. From a decent position at halfway, they've lost five on the spin, four of which were by comprehensive margins. Kane Williamson's performances as opener - 208 runs at an average of 18.9, with a strike-rate of just 93 - have been a bitter disappointment. The captain has serious questions to answer regarding why he hasn't at least demoted himself.

Perhaps that will happen today. There's no reason why these sides shouldn't experiment and Sunrisers' batting order is all wrong. The middle-order is strong and there are plenty of alternatives to promote. Indeed, taking speculative odds about experimental orders may be the way forward in these late group matches.

So who could they promote? Aiden Markram is the obvious alternative, as an opener for his country. Romario Shepherd hasn't been making the side of late but he has the aggression for a higher role, especially given the side doesn't lack finishers. Mumbai are much less likely to experiment in this way but if they were to, Daniel Sams might be the beneficiary.

Runs and sixes falling sharply at the Wankhede

This is in effect a home match for Mumbai, at the Wankhede Stadium. They won here last time, easily against Chennai. Sunrisers lost both of their matches here. Given the stark difference in their recent form and the lack of an obvious toss bias, [1.9] is a perfectly fair offer about Mumbai. Take it.

Regarding the toss decision, there is a slight statistical advantage in chasing. Ten of 17 matches this season went that way, including the last two following very low first innings scores. However, in the latest one, M.S. Dhoni chose to bat first, citing used pitches liable to slow up. That it went wrong does not disprove the theory.

On that evidence, runs are likely to be low. The longstanding, reliable tactic at the Wankhede has been to back 'overs' on runs during the second half of the innings. In Sunday's match though, a paltry 43 runs were managed off the last seven. Several 1st Innings Runs lines were smashed at odds shorter than 1.11/10.

Sunrisers sixes line looks too high

Only five sixes were managed from both sides combined, for the second match running. Given that Sunrisers have averaged less than seven throughout the whole tournament, their Total Sixes line looks too high at Over/Under 6.5.

Regarding Top Team Runscorer, the two #OddsBoosts are for Rohit Sharma and Kane Williamson - boosted to 3/1 and 16/5 respectively. Neither make any appeal whatsoever, for the form reasons stated above.

At 11/1, Tim David definitely appeals for Mumbai. He could make mincemeat of the Wankhede's short boundaries late on. For Sunrisers, try Nicholas Pooran at 7.06/1 with the same thoughts in mind. Alongside Markram, he's been their best batsman. A rare positive in an otherwise poor season, which is getting worse by the game.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty