Mumbai Indians v Delhi Capitals IPL Tips: Capitals to land final play-off spot

Paul Krishnamurty
20 May 2022

Mitch Marsh has begun to transfer his Big Bash form to IPL

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Its crunch-time for Delhi Capitals, who must win their final match to reach the play-offs. Paul Krishnamurty is confident they will do so, regardless of the toss...

"Given their clear superiority and urgent need of the win, match odds of 1.824/5 are perfectly generous enough."
Back Delhi Capitals 7u @ 1.824/5

Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Following Rajasthan's win over Chennai - ensuring a top-two place alongside Gujurat Titans - only one play-off position needs resolving. If Delhi beat Mumbai today, they will face Lucknow in the Eliminator. If they lose, Royal Challengers Bangalore will complete the quartet.

Mumbai battling to avoid wooden spoon

This match is not entirely meaningless for Mumbai, for whom a big margin win could yet usurp Chennai in the race to avoid bottom place. An extraordinary situation between the pre-tournament favourites and defending champions respectively, yet entirely justified on their performances.

To be fair, Mumbai have improved as the tournament progressed and will be kicking themselves at failing to chase down Sunrisers in their last match, from a good position. An untimely run out for Tim David (when carrying our cash at 11/1) did the damage, but they can take solace from an opening stand of 95 between Rohit Sharma and Ishan Kishan. Their shortcomings, particularly the former, has been key to their failure.

Mumbai bowlers set for another hammering

As or more importantly, their bowlers have simply not been up to the job, besides Jasprit Bunmrah. His returns - 12 wickets plus an economy of 7.25 - is fair, if not outstanding. Otherwise, of those to have bowled at least 15 overs in the competition, only Murugan Ashwin at 7.86 has an economy below 8.73.

That doesn't bode well against a Delhi side who have won four of their last five and boast a deep, powerful batting line-up. David Warner has led from the front, averaging 53.37 with a strike-rate of 152. They've tried a few out alongside him at the top of the order and, in recent games, Sarfaraz Khan and Mitchell Marsh have offered ample support.

If need be, Rovman Powell, Shardul Thakur and Axar Patel provide big-hitting at the depth, and that could well prove decisive at the Wankhede Stadium. Indeed, given their clear superiority and urgent need of the win, match odds of 1.824/5 are perfectly generous enough.

Toss less important than usual at the Wankhede

To be feeling confident enough to bet pre-toss has been one of the revelations of this year's renewal, after the dull predictability of 2021. In 19 matches at this stadium, 11 went to the chasers, with the last 16 shared 8-8. Any advantage has been minimal, so I'm happy to take a position now.

The more critical factor to note at the Wankhede is that it is generally easier to score during the second half of the innings. Especially with wickets in hand and freedom to take on these very reachable boundaries. To reiterate, Delhi look much superior in that regard, due to a deep, powerful, settled order.

In contrast, I'm far less inclined to make a prediction about runs or sixes, as it seems to differ sharply between the strips used. In the past week, the first two matches yielded just 200 and 274 runs and five maximums apiece. The two since, however, produced 383 and 338 runs, plus 19 and 14 sixes. On a flat deck, 200 is perfectly realistic here but we've also seen five 1st Innings Runs totals below 150 this term.

That said, if you're looking for an 'overs' bet on runs, the enhanced 9/4 about Both Teams to Score 170 is attractive, based on the wider history at this ground.

Try Delhi spinners for Man of the Match

Two further #OddsBoosts are available on Top Team Runscorer, with David Warner enhanced to 13/5 for Delhi and Rohit Sharma to 10/3 for Mumbai. If retained at number three, 10/1 about Daniel Sams represents standout value. More generally, I prefer to look lower down the order at this ground, but Tim David's odds have been substantially cut, to 13/2. Nevertheless, his power-packed finishing is made for the Wankhede.

Finally, Kuldeep Yadav is a must-bet for Man of the Match at 14/1, having won the market four times already this season. His spin-twin Axar Patel also appeals at the same odds. The Wankhede pitch has turned plenty of late and they could make hay.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty