Lucknow Super Giants v Royal Challengers Bangalore IPL Tips: Lucknow bowlers can squeeze RCB

• Lucknow bang in title contention

• This ground has seen lower scoring

• Back Lucknow spinners

Lucknow Super Giants v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Monday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Following a weekend which saw defending champions Gujurat pull clear of the pack as their two closest rivals lost, seven teams are realistically in contention for the play-offs. Both Lucknow and Bangalore are among them, on ten and eight points respectively.

I strongly expect 16 points will prove the target, so Lucknow would need to win three from their last six matches, RCB four from their six.

Slow conditions favour hosts

The market makes RCB slight favourites at 1.9, despite their inferior position in the table. I disagree, rating LSG the better side and stronger title contender. Moreover, today's conditions may suit them better.

Normally around this stage of the season, scores tend to come down as pitches wear, slow and take greater turn. There is absolutely no sign of it yet. Eight of the last 12 first innings reached 200. This match, however, could well prove the exception.

160 looks competitive here

That isn't due to the teams, but the ground. In three of four matches so far at Lucknow, the first innings came in below 160, with two below 140. The only big innings so far was the first of the season here, and looked at least 20 over par at the time. Likewise on the sixes count, ten or fewer landed in three of four matches.

Regarding 1st Innings Runs, I can only guess where this is priced up. Dare anyone lay big odds about 200 in light of recent events? Yet those previous matches suggest it should be 6.0 at least. I'm hoping to lay 170 at 1.7, and 160 at 1.4, but won't put them up as a tip because those odds could be well out.

RCB bowling proving very expensive

Assuming we get slow conditions, this may come down to which side's bowlers can contain scoring. Lucknow look far superior in that regard. They can call on three spinners - Mishra, Bishnoi and Krunal Pandya. Marcus Stoinis is adept at economising in slow conditions, while Naveen ul-Haq is going at less than 6.0.

The highest economy among those five is 8.09, whereas RCB's most economical spinner is going at 9.0 (Hasaranga). Harshal Patel is costing 9.94, while Bracewell, Vyshak and Maxwell are all going at ten-plus.

Trust that Lucknow unit to restrict RCB to Under 6.5 Sixes. Note, only one out of eight teams to bat on this surface managed to beat this line.

Today's #Oddsboost batsmen are K.L. Rahul and Faf du Plessis, enhanced to 11/4 and 13/5 for LSG and RCB respectively. That's a generous quote for Rahul, which I'm sure would have yielded a profit over the years, but a couple of alternatives appeal more at the odds.

Since wisely moving Deepak Hooda to a finishing role, Lucknow have been experimenting with number threes. In their last three matches, the role has gone to either Ayush Badoni or Krunal Pandya. Dutching the pair at 11/1 and 18/1 surely represents value, if not an obvious winner.

Finally, try Krunal at 18/1 for Man of the Match too. All-rounders always appeal in this market because they provide two chances to win, and he has already landed one award this season. Also add Amit Mishra at 20/1. His spin may well prove decisive.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty