Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Lucknow should despatch Kings

• Lucknow underrated

• Tacky surface expected

• Livingstone big at 13/27.50

• Read about Ed's Betfair Exchange strategy below

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings
Saturday 30 March, 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings team news

Lucknow's 20-run defeat by Royals in their opener may not look so bad in time. They were in with a shout of chasing at one stage. But they are set up for the solid rather than the spectacular and require pyrotechnics from Nic Pooran to lift them.

Possible XI: De Kock, KL Rahul, Paddikal, Badoni, Hooda/Y Thakur (subs), Pooran, Stoinis, Krunal, Bishnoi, Mohsin, Nvaeen

Punjab were outclassed by RCB last time, which is never a good look. They already appear to have an issue with balance because of an overload of openers; Shikhar Dhawan, Matt Short, Jonny Bairstow and Prab Singh are specialists vying for two spots. Hence Sam Curran batting up the order.

Possible XI: Dhawan, Bairstow, P Singh, S Curran, Livingstone, Jitesh, Shahshank, Harpreet, Harshal, Rabada, R Chahar

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings pitch report

The Lucknow surface is tacky and four times in eight IPL matches (and one T20i) has the first-innings score come in under 140. Seven times in 14 Syed Musthtaq matches in October 2022 also saw under 140 scored although the busy schedule means we treat the trend with caution.

A par line of around the mid 160s looks likely at this stage and that would have to be a short.

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings match odds

Lucknow are 1.9010/11 and Punjab 2.0811/10. We're unclear as to why the market finds it so difficult to split these two.

The hosts have twice made the play-offs in their short history and have been shown to be organised and solid. Even over that matched study period Punjab have been chaotic and reliably poor.

Success for Punjab over Delhi is not the big tick that the market seems to think and if Lucknow don't pick up their first win it would be a surprise.

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings match odds

Yet there remains potential in their price for a drift. With the new ball Punjab could think they are bang in the game given Lucknow's penchant for taking it easy.

There's little reckless strokeplay up front from Lucknow as they prefer to build solid platforms for late assaults. They may be target around eight an over in the first ten in an effort to go big at the death. That could be the time to bet them on the exchange.

Lucknow Super Giants v Punjab Kings player bets

There are three players of interest based on win rates. With the ball, Kagiso Rabada has copped 33.3% of the time on two-year form. Sportsbook go 3/14.00 for top Punjab bowler.

With the bat, Liam Livingstone has been pushed out to 13/27.50. We have to take that as he has been winning at a rate of 29%. Finally we keep faith with Quinton de Kock at a boosted 13/53.60, with more than seven win-rate points in our favour.

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