Lucknow the value on the Exchange
Loser goes home in crunch clash
Pitch favours LSG
Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians
Wednesday 24 May, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Lucknow have re-set impressively after losing three players who appeared likely to be key - KL Rahul, Jaydev Unadkat and Mark Wood. Marcus Stoinis has grown into the tournament with strong performances of late. Opener Karan Sharma and pacer Yash Thakur are the batter and bowler subs repsectively.
Probable XII: De Kock, Karan Shama, Mankad, Stoinis, Pandya, Badoni, Pooran, Gowtham, Bishnoi, Naveen, Mohsin, Thakur *Possible sub
Mumbai are all about batting power. They have bludgeoned and bullied their way into fourth position but a negative net run rate is a warning that they're far from the full package. Their bowling has recently been bolstered by Chris Jordan but it's been an issue all season. Suryakumar Yadav is crucial for them given his potential to turn trends on their head and win a game on his own.
Probable XII: Rohit, Ishan, Green, Yadav, Wadhera, David, Vishnu, Jordan, Chawla, Behrendorff, Kartikeya, Tyagi, Madhwal
The Chepauk surface looked glassy in the early exchanges between CSK and Titans on Tuesday. But it then slowed up.
Prior to that clash, 186 was the all-time average winning score. With Mumbai's batting reputation preceding them, shorting their runs batting first could be available if the market is swayed.
We'd be very keen to go under high 170s or low 180s. They managed only 139 on this ground against Chennai earlier in the season. Lucknow average 8.5 an over with the ball.
How to play
This is Lucknow's bowling acumen versus Mumbai's batting brawn. We're not convinced that Mumbai should be as short as 1.768/11 so we're happy to play the Giants to knock them out.
The trends suggest Mumbai are in trouble. As stated, they were squeezed by Chennai spin at this venue and squeezed by Lucknow spin on a potentially similar surface on the road. Krunal Pandya and Ravi Bishnoi conceded just 53 off a combined eight overs.
Key batters also have average records against this probable LSG bowling line-up. Crucially, Yadav has a mark of just 16.5, Rohit Sharma 26.3 and Ishan Kishan 24. That could be the game right there.
Stoinis bullied Mumbai in the head-to-head and we note Sportsbook's 9s that he is man of the match.
Krunal and Bishnoi are 10s and 16s respectively. Sportsbook have boosted Quinton de Kock and Rohit to 13/5 and 7/2 respectively for top team bats.