Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans IPL Tips: Go low on sixes

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians
Saturday 12 April, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans IPL team news

Lucknow Super Giants are the surprise package this term. They coped admirably with losing key bowlers early on and have forged a strong opening pairing of Aiden Markram and Mitch Marsh despite concerns about their data.

Three wins from five has them bang in the play-off picture and they held their nerve against KKR to defend 238. They are reliant on their front four with the bat but, hell, it used to be  just Nic Pooran and Rishabh Pant. 

Possible LSG XI: Marsh (Bishnoi sub), Markram, Pooran, Pant, Badoni, Miller, Samad, Shardul, Rathi, Deep, Siddharth/Avesh

Gujarat Titans have four wins in five. All wins are consecutive as they have quickly found their feet. Last time out they thumped Rajasthan by 58 runs.

In Sai Sudharsan, Shubman Gill and Jos Buttler they have the most reliable front three in terms of rungetting. Sai is, in fact, a freak for how often he delivers. He has three top-bat wins already this season.

But. And we keep stating this, they are not using all resources at their disposal. Against Royals they used only three overseas players. Kagiso Rabada appears to be still unavailable. Washington Sundar was in and then out after just one game. 

Possible GT XI: Sai, Gill, Buttler, Shahruk, Rutherford (Khejroliya sub), Tewatia, Rashid, Arshad, Kishore, Siraj, Krishna

Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans IPL pitch report

Lucknow wanted a more spin-friendly surface for their match against Mumbai, switching to a black soil wicket. Did it have an impact?

It's hard to say. Digvesh Rathi probably made the difference in a very steep chase, conceding five an over. But Mitch Santner and Ravi Bishnoi took tap. Lucknow may prefer to use the same surface as their big-hitting then becomes a point of difference.

In the 16 IPL matches at Lucknow, more than 190 has now been busted five times in first-innings. The 20-over par line may be in the low 180s. Sportsbook offer both teams innings runs over/under.

Lucknow are 180.5 and Titans 179.5. Unders on the sixes is a favourite play. Sportsbook go 16.5 at 10/111.91 and that has been a winner in 11 of the matches. 

Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans  IPL match prediction 

These are two teams of contrasting styles. There is more than a hint of chaos with LSG, who are attack-attack-attack. Gujarat are a bit steadier with the bat, although the lack of big hitting hasn't stopped them posting decent totals.

Where the edge may lie is with the ball. LSG are proving to be expensive and Gujarat have an ability to contain, going at around 8.8 an over. That could be key in a contest where both sides may have worries about losing early wickets. Indeed, Rashid Khan has kept Nic Pooran pretty quiet in franchise. In 50 balls he's conceded 40 runs and got him out twice. 

Neither team have a power-packed lower-order. Gujarat, at slightly odds-against when the market settles, probably just shade it but that's very much an odds-based view. 

Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans IPL Exchange strategy

Taking a view on a player, team or pitch before a trend has emerged is what it's all about. There is a sense here that Gujarat have the edge because of their bowling and that they could squeeze the hosts. But batting first may be the key.

The strong opinion is that the wicket could get slower, making chasing trickier over time. Gujarat, then, batting first could well be a trade into short odds-on.

Lucknow Super Giants v Gujarat Titans IPL player bets

Pooran is 11/43.75 for top LSG bat and will be all the rage because of the rate he scores at. We have toyed, however, with shorting his runs because of his record against Rashid. But we can be cuter than that.

An in-play strategy is to short only when Rashid is actually bowling. There's no point getting against him pre-toss only for him to smash 20 off an over of pace and have to wait for Rashid to bowl.

For Gujarat, Gill could soon be an option again at 11/53.20 for top bat.

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