Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Varun to put Kings in a spin

• Choice affair at Eden Gardens

• Signs of turn at venue

• Varun to the fore

• Both sides struggling for consistency

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Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings
Saturday 26 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings IPL team news

KKR are facing a struggle to break into the top four. They are increasingly producing listless performances and have lost three of their last four. Defeat by Gujarat Titans last time out was particularly concerning.

A chase of 198 at Eden Gardens was hardly the stuff of nightmares. But they looked afraid of going for the target. Venkatesh Iyer scored 14 off 19 and Rinku Singh 17 off 14. They fell 39 short.

Quinton de Kock has been dropped for Rahmanullah Gurbaz. Moeen Ali batting at No 8 and Angkrish Raghuvanshi coming in as an impact player at No 9 means KKR should be capable of aggression up front. 

Probable KKR XI: Gurbaz, Narine, Rahane, Venkatesh, Rinku, Russell, Ramandeep, Moeen, Raghuvanshi (Arora sub), Harshit, Varun

Punjab were thumped by RCB last time out as their batting flopped to post 157 for six. It has been of the great rediscoveries of this IPL that despite boasting as good, if not better, XI than every team this is a franchise which cannot help but create an environment for inconsistency.

Maybe Punjab's batters are leaving it to each other given that they bat all the way No 8 with Marco Jansen. Glenn Maxwell has been dropped with Josh Inglis coming in. He showed good intent against RCB.

Probable Punjab XI: Arya, Prab Singh (Harpreet), Iyer, Inglis, Wadhera, Shashank, Stoinis, Jansen, Bartlett, Arshdeep, Chahal

Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings IPL pitch report

Nine of the last 17 first-innings have seen 200 or more busted. Gujarat fell two short of making it ten. Normally we would expect runs. But few will have faith in these two batting line-ups. both are prone to chucking in a stinker. So although the par line overs play may look cheap at 196.5, it may be one to swerve. 

The unreliability of these two is illustrated by the 7/24.50 that Sportsbook offer about both scoring 200. We have seen that market much shorter on wickets with similarly good records for runs. 

Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings IPL match prediction

The match odds market on the Exchange has this as a choice affair and that looks to be spot on. KKR are 1.981/1 with Punjab 2.001/1.

The winner could be the team which plays spin best. There were a few hints that the Eden Gardens surface was taking turn in the Gujarat contest. Varun Chakravarthy, Sai Kishore and Rashid Khan were all mean.

Varun has been superb for KKR this season with ten wickets and an economy of 6.4. His partner in tweak, Sunil Narine, has also been tight at 7.60. It is these economy numbers which give them a slight edge over opposite numbers Harpreet Brar and Yuz Chahal. In the face of tight lines, we're not convinced Punjab have it in them to show the discipline or nous required. 

Kolkata Knight Riders v Punjab Kings IPL player bets

Varun's strong record makes him a fancy for top bowler at 5/23.50. He hasn't won for four matches but his pre-season win rate means that he is very much in the win zone. What we like about Varun here is his head-to-head against the Punjab batters (Prab, Shreyas, Inglis, Wadhera, Stoinis). From 49 balls he's taken four wickets and conceded 42. 

With such a record it does look like value. But we are wary of Punjab's generally poor play against spin so Narine is a runner. The play safe option is to go over 20.5 performance points for Varun at even money but it will still feel like a bet to take two wickets. Varun has managed this 11 times in the last 23 IPL matches (two-year formguide). 

For top bats, Marcus Stoinis retains appeal. The Aussie is yet to win after a two-year success rate at 27.5% at the start of term. He is 13/114.00 with Sportsbook but has been batting a bit low recently. A tackier pitch keeps us interested. If we thought it would be a straight-up road we'd probably swerve. 

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