Ed Hawkins searches for value with the side markets in the IPL, as Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indian clash in Chennai.
"Chahar is thriving on this wicket. The 7/2 is a big price about a spinner with a return rate of 33.3 and seven wickets in three games"
Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians
Tuesday 20 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Delhi bat
Shikhar Dhawan has two wins out of three for top Delhi bat this term, boosting his success rate to 30.5% in the last three years.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, there is a dearth of value elsewhere. No other Delhi player has a price out of line (for punters at least) to take advantage off. Rishabh Pant goes off at 3/1 (win rate of 18.7%) and Prithvi Shaw 4/1 (9.6%). Those are gaps of 9.3% and 10.4% respectively. Ouch. Steve Smith, new to Delhi this season, is also 3/1. He has a win rate of a shade over 11%.
Top Mumbai bat
Not much joy to be had for top Mumbai bat, either. Rohit Sharma's win rate has dipped below 20% so 23/10 is no fun. Ishan Kishan is in terrible touch and the 5/1 is wrong in the wrong way, likewise Suryakumar Yadav at 4/1.
Quinton de Kock provides an edge at 3/1 but he's going for consecutive wins so we'll swerve. Even Kieron Pollard doesn't fit the bill at 15/2, a mean cut from 10s last time.
In the 12 innings at the Chepauk a spin bowler has won (three times) or tied (four) for top wicket-taker. There is a massive discrepancy, historically, of balls per wicket in favour of tweakers over pacers.
That's why we're swerving Kagiso Rabada for top Delhi bowler despite his fine record. Ravi Ashwin goes off at 3/1 and there is an edge on that price not even including the favourable track. Likewise Amit Mishra at 4s although he's not expected to play.
For the same reason we're happy to swerve Jasprit Bumrah for Mumbai and pick Rahul Chahar, who is thriving on this wicket. The 7/2 is a big price about a spinner with a return rate of 33.3 and seven wickets in three games.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end