Ed Hawkins goes for some big numbers for top Royals bat in the IPL action on Thursday.
"Riyan Parag and Rahul Tewatia have 10% win rates respectively and there’s no way they should be 14s and 25s"
Rajasthan Royals v Delhi Capitals
Thursday 15 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Royals bat
With Ben Stokes out of the tournament with a broken finger, the expectation is that Jos Buttler will return to open the batting for Royals.
Buttler opening for the Royals in the 2018 season re-ignited his England Test career. He switched from the middle order and in six consecutive games took top-bat honours. Ed Smith must have been on.
However, in the 2019 and 2020 campaigns he was not as hot as opener (unsurprisingly). But it's still four wins in 15 (26%). That's a strong record. Sportsbook have price-boosted him to 11/5 but it's hard to justify as value. He is a fancy in our match preview, though here.
We're ignoring Sanju Samson at 3/1, as good as he was in game one, and the possibility that Liam Livingstone might be asked to open at 5s and going for massive prices and massive edges. Riyan Parag and Rahul Tewatia have 10% win rates respectively and there's no way they should be 14s and 25s.
Top Capitals bat
As discussed on Cricket...Only Bettor (see below) Shikhar Dhawan makes the top five of most reliable batters on the top team runscorer markets in individual innings. Sportsbook go 11/5. With a win rate of 29.4% that's an edge of 2.7%.
We're not in the business of following in for back-to-back winners (Dhawan copped for us against Chennai) but if you missed out he is the only batter in the Capitals XI who is a wrong price. We're desperate for more on Rishabh Pant at 10/3 going forward.
Top Royals bowler
Chris Morris was pipped by debutant Chetan Sakariya in the Royals clash against Punjab. Morris looks big at 3/1 - likewise Sakariya.
Sakariya is 7/2 and will bowl with the new ball and the old, an advantage over Morris who is dangerous in the final overs. With Morris's game better known, though, we'll keep the faith he gets the job done.
Top Capitals bowler
Kagiso Rabada makes the top five for most reliable bowlers. Sportsbook's 9/4 is probably not short enough for this one. The absence of Anrich Nortje, who has tested positive for Covid, means we have one less gun to worry about.
Royals v Capitals full preview on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end