Ed Hawkins says the South African hitter is worth following for big runs in Mumbai on Sunday...
"How does he fare against the Chennai bowlers? Shardul Thakur and Sam Curran are to his liking, striking in the 180s and 160s respectively"
Chennai Super Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunday 24 April, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Bangalore bat
AB De Villiers has been price-boosted to 4/1 for top Bangalore runscorer by Sportsbook. It is a welcome change because at 3/1 previously it was far too short for someone who bats at No 5.
The new odds are good enough to tempt, however. On win rate (last three years), there is an edge of five per cent in our favour.
How does he fare against the Chennai bowlers? Well, Deepak Chahar has troubled him but Shardul Thakur and Sam Curran are to his liking, striking in the 180s and 160s respectively. Strangely, he has never faced Lungi Ngidi before. Our match preview also rates AB as a bet.
We have been on Virat Kohli in all four matches so far because he has been price-boosted. We've run out of runway. The 2/1 says he has a 33% implied probability when his win rate is now at 30%.
Top Chennai bat
Faf Du Plessis has two consecutive wins on the top bats, providing a lesson to those (us included) who abandoned him too early because he looked out of touch. You've got to keep taking wrong prices.
Sportsbook go 11/4 about a hat-trick and although that provides an edge it is generally not advisable to go for back-to-back wins let alone a threepeat.
Faf is the only CSK player incorrectly priced apart from Ravi Jadeja, who gives up a small edge at 22/1. We note MS Dhoni is bang on the money at 10s. Sam Curran is too short at the same.
Top Chennai bowler
In Chennai's run-laden success over Kolkata Knight Riders last time we were keen on Lungi Ngidi for top bowler honours. He took three wickets but was pipped by Deepak Chahar.
Sportsbook have chopped him from 10/3 to 11/4 as they have finally recognised his threat. But we're prepared to play again as it's not quit skinny enough.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end