IPL Sunday Tips: Easy as AB for De Villiers wager

Ed Hawkins
24 April 2021
2:00 min read

AB is slghty underrated

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Ed Hawkins says the South African hitter is worth following for big runs in Mumbai on Sunday...

"How does he fare against the Chennai bowlers? Shardul Thakur and Sam Curran are to his liking, striking in the 180s and 160s respectively"

(1pt) Back Ab De Villiers top RCB bat 5.04/1

Chennai Super Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunday 24 April, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top Bangalore bat

AB De Villiers has been price-boosted to 4/1 for top Bangalore runscorer by Sportsbook. It is a welcome change because at 3/1 previously it was far too short for someone who bats at No 5.

The new odds are good enough to tempt, however. On win rate (last three years), there is an edge of five per cent in our favour.

How does he fare against the Chennai bowlers? Well, Deepak Chahar has troubled him but Shardul Thakur and Sam Curran are to his liking, striking in the 180s and 160s respectively. Strangely, he has never faced Lungi Ngidi before. Our match preview also rates AB as a bet.

We have been on Virat Kohli in all four matches so far because he has been price-boosted. We've run out of runway. The 2/1 says he has a 33% implied probability when his win rate is now at 30%.

Top Chennai bat

Faf Du Plessis has two consecutive wins on the top bats, providing a lesson to those (us included) who abandoned him too early because he looked out of touch. You've got to keep taking wrong prices.

Sportsbook go 11/4 about a hat-trick and although that provides an edge it is generally not advisable to go for back-to-back wins let alone a threepeat.

Faf is the only CSK player incorrectly priced apart from Ravi Jadeja, who gives up a small edge at 22/1. We note MS Dhoni is bang on the money at 10s. Sam Curran is too short at the same.

Top Chennai bowler

In Chennai's run-laden success over Kolkata Knight Riders last time we were keen on Lungi Ngidi for top bowler honours. He took three wickets but was pipped by Deepak Chahar.

Sportsbook have chopped him from 10/3 to 11/4 as they have finally recognised his threat. But we're prepared to play again as it's not quit skinny enough.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2021: +10.86
2020: +5.91
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end