Ed Hawkins finds two big prices to play in-running in the IPL clash between Punjab and Bangalore...
"The best way to play is in-play. Pooran should double in price with a 15 or 20 scored ahead of him"
Punjab Kings v Bangalore Royal Challengers
Friday 30 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Kohli still value - just
Virat Kohli has been a major disappointment for punters and Bangalore fans alike in this year's edition. Despite promoting himself to open, he has been a millstone often getting his team into trouble.
For gamblers, Kohli has costs bundles on the top-bat markets. He has not won this season and if we go back to last year's competition it is only one win in 13. Despite that sequence his win rate in the last four editions is still at 28.2%.
That strong win rate combined with Sportsbook consistently price-boosting him below that probability has been a disaster. Sportsbook have done it again with a quote of 11/4, an edge of 1.5%. By the letter of the value law we should go in again.
What puts us off is a poor record against Mohammad Shami. Shami has got him out four times for 44 runs. His record against Punjab is also hardly stunning - averaging 29.
Pooran to pick up
Another test of faith is with Punjab's Nic Pooran. Sportsbook go 5/1 about the West Indies hitter who has probably had the most underwhelming campaign of all considering the hype that surrounds him.
Pooran has hit only two fours and one six in the tournament, returned three ducks. So why are we considering backing him then?
Well, there is an edge on his price at 5/1 with Sportsbook. We give him an 18.5% chance of topping him while Sportsbook go 16.7%.
Deepak Hooda is a point bigger at 6s and the pair are probably the wrong way round because the former will bat at No 4. Hooda is not a 'wrong' price, though.
The best way to play is in-play. Pooran should double in price with a 15 or 20 scored ahead of him. Likewise Moises Henriques who would fit the bill at around 30s.
Jordan a top bowler bet v Bangalore on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end