Indian Premier League Winner Tips: Sunrisers to herald new dawn

• Bat and ball ranks revealed

• Bangalore a dreadful bet

• KKR an intriguing prospect

• Markram's men the outstanding wager

Calm in the chaos

There are just two-and-a-half points separating the top six teams in the betting for this year's IPL title. From the holders Gujarat Titans at 11/2 to Lucknow Super Giants at 7/1 with Mumbai Indians, Bangalore Royal Challengers, Delhi Capitals and Rajasthan Royals in between, it is fair to reckon that this is the pejorative 'wide open' sporting contest.

The tournament has often been a tough one to crack. Only twice has a tournament title been retained. A runner-up has never progressed to win the trophy a year later. Five times the winner has finished outside the play-off the years before. And in 2022, the Titans didn't exist 12 months previously. Good luck.

Little wonder, then, that caution is the watchword for a competition synonymous with chaos.

A 70-game group stage will throw up plenty of surprises. And it will be a learning curve with two significant new rules.

Teams now name their team after the toss and substitutes (or Impact Players according to the marketing team), who must be Indian unless a franchise has named fewer than four overseas players in the XI. Well-balanced squad have never been more important.

Data is key

Change is disconcerting for the punter. The status quo is our comfort rug. Yet among the scratchy irritation of new teams, rule changes, squad churn and injury lists, there is one constant that we can cling to. And that is: a good bowling team more often beats a good batting team in franchise cricket.
Gujarat were that crack bowling unit last season. Lahore Qalandars have just won the PSL with the same approach. Rashid Khan is the common denominator. It could be that Gujarat prove hard to stop.

But it would be tough to argue that Gujarat are the wrong price. And we should only ever bet a team which, with an educated opinion, should be shorter. And given the concertinaed market, there should be teams which fit the bill.

To educate then, we need to crunch the numbers. By taking two key metrics - boundary percentage and bowling economy - we can start to do that. We've analysed each squad and produced projected XIs and based on two-year data in franchise, been able to build a picture of teams which are well-balanced. The rankings are, of course, subject to change as more injuries reveal themselves and new performers are added to roster. But it's a start.

Team ranked by batting boundary %

1 Kolkata Knight Riders 19.8
2 =Punjab Kings, Mumbai Indians 18.3
4 Rajasthan Royals 18.2
5 = Sunrisers Hyderabad, Delhi Capitals 18.1
7 Bangalore 17.9
8 Lucknow 17.2
9 Chennai Super Kings 17
10 Gujarat Titans 15.7

See, how can we possibly rate Gujarat as a rick given those numbers? The arrival of Kane Williamson, who should slot straight in at No 3, has killed their percentage.

Williamson has a boundary percentage of 11.8% in the last two years which is an appalling return for such an expensive player. He has the worst number of any player in the projected top threes. RCB's Virat Kohli isn't far behind as the second worst.

Barely a bail's width separate Punjab Kings, Mumbai Indians, Rajasthan Royals, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Delhi Capitals. Sunrisers have benefitted from a total overhaul of their batting approach, adding power with expected starters Rahul Tripathi, Harry Brook and Glenn Phillips. In that regard, previous form for Sunrisers, when they were hamstrung by Williamson and ponderous scoring, is irrelevant.

KKR have underachieved

Kolkata's numbers suggest they under-achieved with last season's seventh-placed finish. The bowling numbers scream failure, however. These have been compiled by combining the likely five-man attack and averaging their cumulative economy over a two-year period.

Bowling economy rankings

1 Gujarat 6.9
2 Kolkata 7
3 = Sunrisers, Mumbai, Rajasthan 7.6
6 = Chennai, Delhi 7.7
8 Lucknow 7.9
10 = Bangalore, Punjab

Kolkata, then, have to be considered a value wager on the data. Sportsbook go 9/1, although man for man the price is perhaps understandable. The likes of Andre Russell and Sunil Narine have seen better days.

At the other end of the spectrum, Bangalore are stinking the place out. Again. They fail the test with both bat and ball while Punjab's profligate nature (not to mention their ability to blow up) will put many off. Both are a clear swerve at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Indeed, Bangalore are a truly awful bet.

Lucknow, similarly, are not an inspiring pick even though they would be expected to train on from a fourth-placed finish last term. Chennai, at 17/2, perhaps have a puncher's chance with solid bowling but their batters will be required to up their game.

Bearing in mind that Rajasthan Royals, Delhi and Mumbai completed the teams clustered together at 6/1, is there any evidence that either of those teams are outrageously priced? Not really. They seem to be about spot on. That doesn't make them bad bets, by the way.

Rajasthan have recruited well and last year's beaten finalists will surely make the play-offs.

Delhi, under the astute stewardship of David Warner, could be competitive. Of the three, only Mumbai may make one feel anxious. They seem to have a least two holes in a squad which will need to be filled by ingenue. There's no Jasprit Bumrah, of course, which is taken into account in the numbers.

Here comes the Sun

That leaves us with Sunrisers, who are rated as the rags of the field at 11/1. On the study above, it is an outrageous price and they should be comfortably in the middle of the pricing pack. No-one would raise a query if it were them at 6s with Bangalore tailed off instead.

What is reassuring about Sunrisers' numbers is that it backs up what the seasoned eye can see. An squad which has been overhauled with exciting, powerful thrusters with the bat aligned with a tried and trusted mean bowling unit. In the old-fashioned way of picking a bet on who bats and bowl where, and whether they're any good, Sunrisers are not the outsiders of this field.

With Mayank Agarwal, Tripathi, Brook and Phillips meeting wicket-taker Umran Malik, experienced pair Bhuv Kumar and Natarajan and England spinner Adil Rashid, on talent alone they have all bases covered.

Their bench is superb, too. Washington Sundar doesn't get into our XI, nor does Akeal Hosein, Marco Jansen, Faz Farooqi or Heinrich Klaasen, who hit a 61-ball 119 against West Indies a few days ago.

Perhaps the missing piece in the jigsaw is the leader, Aiden Markram. Markram led a similarly-unheralded Sunrisers franchise to glory in the South African T20 league. It landed him the main gig for the IPL.

In that regard Markram and Sunrisers could be portents for the future. A future where in IPL satellite leagues a franchise's other incarnation tries out methods and madness to hone a tilt at the big one. In time, that could make finding an IPL winner even harder than it currently is. For now, Sunrisers rate the outstanding wager for the 2023 edition.