Gujurat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL Tips: KKR batting to be severely tested

• Back Gujurat to maintain 100% record

• KKR top-order remains very fragile

• Back unders on runs and sixes at 14/1

Gujurat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders
Sunday, 11:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

The Gujurat express keeps on running. Tuesday's comfortable victory over Delhi makes it 14 from 18 matches in their short IPL career. No wonder they're firm 5.2 favourites to defend the title.

Bidding to maintain this season's 100% record, Titans face the side who were rank outsiders prior to their own thumping 81-run victory over RCB.

KKR win over RCB looked freakish

That margin is extraordinary considering where KKR were at 89-5. One wonderful middle-order partnership transformed the match and betting - a 200-plus tally was matched at odds in excess of 25/1 in-running.

Nevertheless, their top order has failed twice and pre-tournament doubts about the batting strength have firmed. Missing the injured Shreyas Iyer, KKR have nobody else in that class. Only Rahmanullah Gurbaz is in a current international side, and Andre Russell is in decline.

160 a big ask against Gujurat attack

Now a fragile unit faces the best bowling attack in T20 cricket. Gujurat conceded 190 only once in those 18 previous IPL matches, and 170 only seven times.

Fresh off a 204, this could be the ideal time to get against Kolkata runs. If batting first, I expect their par 1st Innings Runs line to open around 165-170. Perhaps higher. As the numbers suggest, that is no easy target against this attack including Rashid Khan and Mohammed Shami.

170 isn't straightforward at this ground, either - landing in only five out of 13 IPL matches or T20Is. My plan is to lay the 160 and 150 plus lines, either matching at 1.7 and 1.4 pre-innings or if not, leaving a lay order in-play.

Those 13 matches at the Navendra Modi Stadium produced a 62/38% advantage to chasing sides but that may be negated in a morning match, where dew isn't a factor.

Betting understates Gujurat supremacy

Given their outstanding record and the wide differential in terms of these sides' respective title claims, I'm surprised to see Gujarat trading at 1.82. That rates solid value, regardless of the toss. I think they've actually improved this year, most notably Sai Sudharson and Alzarri Joseph, who have added depth with bat and ball.

Note too that the 15 sixes or more line only landed in 38% of those matches. Gujurat hit far fewer sixes than most sides, and KKR's best chance to win lies with their bowlers, so this market also looks good to back 'unders'.

Today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Shubman Gill and Nitish Rana, enhanced to 3/1 and 7/2 respectively. Gill is quite appealing - a bet at these odds in each Gujurat would have yielded 11% profit.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty