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Gujarat Titans v Rajasthan Royals IPL Final Tips: The players to follow

Ed Hawkins
28 May 2022
3:00 min read

Miller looks skinny at 4/1

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Ed Hawkins has the lowdown on the players to bet on in the IPL final on Sunday in Ahmedabad and those to swerve...

"Gill has three wins this season, taking his win rate to 28.6%. Sportsbook are giving us an edge of 6.4%"

(1pt) Back Shubmann Gill top Gujarat bat 4.507/2

Can Buttler do it again?

The Indian Premier League final may well be another Jos Buttler show. As discussed in our match preview, if Buttler fires then the Rajasthan Royals are going to be mighty hard to stop.

Buttler has been a one-man run-machine and profit machine this tournament. He has almost single-handedly charged the Royals run, smashing his fourth century in the final eliminator against Bangalore on Friday.

His 824 runs in 16 games puts him third on the list of most runs in a season. With another 25 he surpasses David Warner's vintage of 2016. Virat Kohli's 973 in the same year looks more extraordinary with every passing game, particularly because of his fall from grace.

More importantly, he has been a top-bat master. Buttler has seven wins. Before this tournament began he had five in his last 20 IPL appearances. His win rate has shot up from 25% to 33.3%.

And that's our first port of call as we seek value in the showpiece. Sportsbook are taking an almighty risk pricing Buttler at a boosted 21/10 for an eighth and third-successive win. Perhaps their rationale is that he is due to fail, although he suffered his dip before the play-offs.

For the record, Sportsbook are rating Buttler at 32.3%. It's a smidge of value that goes a long way with a man whose record is superb. It should be noted that Buttler topped in both outings against Gujarat this term

There is a bigger edge on top Gujarat bat, however. Shubmann Gill, like everyone else when one man has been so dominant with the bat, has slipped under the radar rather. But he has been solid so the Sportsbook-boosted 7/2 looks tantalising.

He has three wins this season, taking his win rate to 28.6%. It's a slight dip from the start of the season. Still, Sportsbook are giving us an edge of 6.4%. In the qualifier Gill looked more than capable of handling the Royals attack with a pleasant knock. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

If it is to be a late-order player that does the business, we should mention Rahul Tewatia at 11s with Sportsbook. He is underrated. David Miller looks too skinny at 4s even though his late assault against the Royals in the qualifier swung the game. For Royals we must mention Ravi Ashwin at 25s. He has batted up the order upon occasion and has a top to his name

Rashid may be a swerve

Talking of consistency, how about this? Rashid Khan came into the 2022 season with a 40% return rate on the top bowler markets. His rate is exactly the same after 15 matches.

Sportsbook go 11/4 that he wins outright - something he has done four times. It will prove a popular wager for sure.

However, do be aware that with the Royals boasting plenty of left-handers to counter Rashid's wicket-taking ability, the spinner may opt to merely keep it tight. This is exactly what he did in the head-to-heads this season. He was mean and miserly but wicketless. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Six appeal

What is perfect about the final match-up is that Gujarat are the best bowling team and Royals the most destructive with the bat.

Gujarat are ranked bottom on boundary percentage with the bat. Rajasthan are second. Gujarat are ranked No 1 for bowling boundary percentage, Rajasthan are ranked sixth.

Now it could be tempting to reckon that because of the mismatch in terms of hitting ability, Rajasthan are not short enough at 8/11 with Spoortsbook for most sixes.

But hold on. Gujarat's bowling surely reduces their power. In fact, the differing strengths of both teams on this market could cancel each other out. In the two games so far, Royals have won on sixes by seven to six and there was also a six-six tie. The latter could be of interest again at 6.05/1.
Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2022: +23.35
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts

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