Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Gill and Mohit to give GT the fizz

• Gujarat underrated at 1.784/5

• Hosts have excellent record

• Gill boosted to 5/2

• Read about Ed's Betfair Exchange strategy below

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings
Thursday 4 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings team news

Gujarat are two from three with the odd one out being defeat by Chennai Super Kings. Their superior smarts accounted for Sunrisers last time out. We're not convinced Sai Sudharsan is a help at No 3 but that may be proven long-term.

Probable XI: Gill, Saha, Sai, Shankar, Miller, Omarzai, Tewatia, Rashid, Umesh, Noor, Nalkande

Liam Livingstone is a doubt following a calf injury sustained in defeat by Lucknow. Rilee Rossouw would be considered a decent replacement. Jonny Bairstow finally made a score of note versus LSG but they were blown away by rising star Mayank Yadav.

Possible XI: Dhawan, B'stow, Prab Singh/Arshdeep (subs), Rossouw, S Curran, Jitesh, Shashank, Harpreet, Rabada, Harshal, R Chahar

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings pitch report

In nine of the last 14 T20 at Ahmedabad 175.5 has been busted on a fictional first-innings par line. Gujarat's run rate of 8.1 versus Punjab's economy of 9.3 suggests something has got to give. If they meet in the middle it could be the 175.5 is not busted again. The market appears to be wise.

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings match odds

The 1.784/5 about Gujarat is a surprisingly high number. Gujarat are solid-looking at this stage and coping well with the loss of Mohammad Shami and Hardik Pandya.

When one considers that Gujarat have won 24 of their 35 matches and Punjab are the most reliably unreliable team in IPL history, then it's a genuine puzzler. What are we missing? They are clear value by at least 0.8 ticks.

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings Exchange strategy

As mentioned earlier, we're not convinced by Sai as a T20 No 3. He bats too slow and although reliable in run getting, one of these days he is going to cost his team.

A strike rate of 124 is way below the mean and it could be there's an opportunity to short runs when he is at the wicket. This may only be best done, however, if Shubman Gill and Wriddi Saha have gone off at around nine an over in the first six.

It's also worth pointing out that Punjab were friendless versus Lucknow in the chase despite being well up with the rate into the 9th over. Only consecutive sixes from Jonny Bairstow gave them brief fav status.

Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings player bets

Mohit Sharma is winning 25% of the time on top bowler for GT and his expert death work makes him value for another strike at 10/34.33 with the Sportsbook. We will keep faith with team-mate Gill for top bat at a boosted 5/23.50.

For Punjab, we don't mind Shikhar Dhawan for runs again. He is one of the few players who can be trusted to go back-to-back and the Sportsbook go 13/53.60.

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