Gujarat Titans v Punjab Kings IPL tips: Can KKR finally get a win?

Click here for Gujarat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders odds
Friday 17 April,15:00
TV: Sky Sports

Gujarat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL team news

Gujarat Titans are doing okay with two wins from four but they could be doing better if they were to make an obvious selection tweak. It is surely time for Kagiso Rabada to be replaced by Jason Holder.

Rabada has taken four wickets at 40 each with an economy rate of just shy of 11. It's not good enough for an overseas pacer, particularly when Holder is waiting in the wings. In an 8 RPO match against Lucknow, Rabada went for more than 13 an over.

Holder would add much-needed batting depth to GT as there are legitimate worries that they fall away in the middle- to lower-order.

Possible XI: Sai, Gill, Buttler, Phillips, Sundar, Tweatia, Shahrukh (sub Siraj), Rashid, Holder, Ashok, Prasidh

Kolkata Knight Riders are bottom of the table with four defeats from five. They are extremely fortunate to have got one point thanks to a washout against Punjab Kings. They were well-beaten by Chennai Super Kings last time out.

It does seem as though it is now or never to start making some tough, but smart, selection calls. Their current predicament has a lot to do with an obsession with picking Cameron Green and not using the straretgy they were clearly going to use when recruiting at the auction.

That means pairing Tim Seifert and Finn Allen as blazing openers. It is a clear strength but they have not used it. They should also be able to pick Matheesha Pathirana imminently. Again, it was a clear strategy to find a death bowler so use him. There will be holes in the XI but at this stage they have no choice.

The return to fitness of Varun Chakravarthy and Umran Malik, a game-changing pacer, are major boosts.

Possible XI: Seifert, Allen, Rahane, Raghuvanshi, Rinku, Ramandeep (sub Umran Malik), Narine, Anukul, Arora, Varun, Pathirana/Muzarabani

Gujarat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL pitch report

This is the first match of the season at Ahmedabad. We should expect another bat-dominated contest. The average runs per over in the last 20 IPL night matches is 9.56. There is a split batting first and second with numbers at 9.78 and 9.33. Not surprisingly, then, a toss bias is present. Thirteen of the matches have been won by the side batting first.

We expect a 20-over par line at overs 205.5. That mark has won nine times but rungetting definitely picked up in the 2025 edition. Both teams to score 200 has won four times - all in 2025. It's not a market that screams value at 13/53.60, particularly as KKR's batting has consistently failed on good wickets this term. That rather kills GT's total match runs line play at a cheap 192.5 and it may be better to go overs on the Exchange batting first.

Gujarat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL match prediction

Gujarat are 1.664/6 for the win. This is normally the price of a really crack unit. Gujarat are not that. However, it says far more about the confidence in KKR given their dreadful start.

Taking the short odds about GT cannot be advised pre-toss because of the data on chasing sides struggling. But batting first they should stick it to KKR. Any score of 200 or more will pile pressure on a KKR line-up which has faltered when supposedly 'in' the chase on good wickets against Chennai and Sunrisers.

Risking Gujarat with the toss bias against them is price dependant. They would need to be significant odds against (say 2.206/5 or 2.305/4 at the break going after more than 220 but we just don't see the market pricing it that way. 

Gujarat Titans v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL player bets

Sai Sudharsan is in the win zone for top Gujarat bat and one of the most consistent rungetters in IPL history is worth a follow at 12/53.40. Sai comfortably busts the 30% win-rate mark with this price just a shade under on implied probability. The 13/82.63 that he lands a 50 takes others out of the equation on a good wicket. The top-rated bet, however, is Prasidh Krishna for top GT bowler as third jolly at 16/54.20. It's a price which makes little sense given his outstanding returns and death work. Luke Wood is a surprising favourite as we don't expect him to play. Prasidh is the joint-top wicket-taker in the tournament. 

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