Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Rashid gives underdogs the edge

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians
Saturday 29 March, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Gujarat Titans will have been perturbed that Rashid Khan went for 12 an over in a chastening defeat by Punjab as they conceded 243. They need him for control with Kagiso Rabada and Mohammad Siraj potentially expensive.

There is also an issue with balance. The clue was Prasidh Krishna being subbed out for the chase for Sherfane Rutherford. That's not something that was anticipated with Washington Sundar expected to provide a fulcrum. Instead Arshad Khan's hitting has got him the nod. There is also an argument that Glenn Phillips, outstanding in the field and useful with the ball, has the edge over Rutherford. 

Possible Gujarat XI: Gill, Sai, Buttler, Rutherford (Krishna sub), Tewatia, Shahrukh, Arshad, Rashid, Sai, Rabada, Siraj

Mumabi Indians'  traditional opening defeat is out of the way. But there were few encouraging signs that it could be immediately snapped as they were outclassed by Chennai Super Kings, managing only 155 batting first.

The balance doesn't look great with three openers in the team and Tilak Varma down at No 5. Hardik Pandya could help by returning after suspension. Robin Minz probably makes way. Rohit Sharma was subbed out for unheladed spinner Vignesh Puthur. Jasprit Bumrah is still injured.

Possible MI XI: Rohit (Piuthur sub), Rickleton, Jacks, Yadav, Tilak, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Chahar, Boult, Raju

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

Before Punjab defended a whopping score against Gujarat, there was a 66% bias for the chaser in night games from 23 played. It's a stat worth remembering for a contest where the sides appear to be evenly matched. It could be that the rule to allow a ball change to counter dew could have had an impact in that game. 

The par line looks likely to be set in the mid 190s. That may be cheap given what Punjab managed. if we're looking at overs, say, 194.5, that would have been a winner nine times in 19 (since start of 2023). Both teams look likely to be more dangerous with the bat than the ball. 

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL match prediction

Gujarat are 2.1211/10 and Mumbai are 1.875/6. There's not much to choose between these team, which is why Gujarat will immediately jump out as value, particularly with home advantage.

Mumbai have lost all three against Gujarat in Ahmedabad. On each occassion they had significant problems against Rashid. Given that Noor Ahmad won Chennai the game against Mumbai in their first outing with his spin, it is fair to reckon that Rashid is the point of difference here. Both Noor and Rashid can spin the ball into a right-hander.

In short, this is at least a choice affair and at odds against Gujarat warrant support to bounce back from their loss to Punjab. Do bear in mind, though, that we don't expect Titans to be pulling up trees this term.

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL special bets

We like to bet on what we know to be true. So Sportsbook's 66/167.00 that both teams score 210, Shubman Gill top scores for the hosts and Rohit Sharma for the visitors has appeal. For a start, we're pretty sure that this is a flat wicket and the two bowling units have the potential to go around the park. Gill is also a solid bet for top bat with a win rate of 33% in the last two years.

And Rohit? That's the sticking point. Rohit is on the decline in terms of top-bat wins and he may only be good for two wins this season. But all the above suggests that this might be a time for him to go well. Rohit's MO these days is to blaze away in the powerplay until he finds some sort of rhythm. Most of the time it'll go straight up but, as in the Champions trophy final, sometimes he finds the middle early and he can have the market won in quick time. 

If the 66s is not for you, then by all means just stick with Gill at 23/103.30 to top for GT. He took a ton off Mumbai on this ground last season and has passed 50 three times in his last five innings against them.

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