Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Hosts can book final spot

• Gujarat can sneak close game

• Yadav their greatest obstacle

• Winner goes to the final

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians
Friday 26 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Gujarat were tight with the ball in Chepauk. But not tight enough. It is rare that a team restricts a team to under the 20-over line and loses but Gujarat never really looked like getting up in a chase of 173 against Chennai. They are now out to 3.9 to win the title, just a tick ahead of Mumbai.

They may need to find room for Josh Little instead of Dasun Shanaka. Going in with only five bowlers on a better batting track at Ahmedabad is risky against Mumbai.

Possible XII: Gill, Saha, Hardik, Shankar, Miller, Tewatia, Rashid, Nalkande, Noor, Shami, Mohit, Little *Possible sub

Mumbai trounced Lucknow Super Giants in the eliminator. It has to be said, though, that there have not been as many chaotic batting displays this season as LSG produced in that crunch game.

Still, Mumbai batted with typical gusto and they will prefer the venue switch. Tilkar Varma's return to the fold is welcome. Akash Madhwal's five for five won him man of the match.

Probable XII: Rohit, Ishan, Yadav, Green, Varma, David, Wadhera, Jordan, Shokeen, Chawla, Behrendorff, Madhwal *Possible sub

Pitch report

At Ahmedabad 188 is the average first-innings score this term. All-time it comes in at 166. A total of 177 is the average score to win in all matches. The powerplay score at 47.4 is the same for all-time and this season. At the death the spread is 51-55.

In the head-to-head at Ahmedabad Gujarat took the points after posting 207. We would back them to take advantage of leaky Mumbai bowling if the line is in the mid 180s.

How to play

This is Mumbai's power batting game against Gujarat's all-round excellence. But with both play-off matches won by the team with the superior boundary percentage rating, Gujarat can be forgiven for feeling nervous.

After all, they could just be a Suryakumar Yadav special from elimination. In the previous meeting he smashed 103 from 49 gaining revenge for an earlier Titans masterclass.

Still, on a flatter wicket bowling skill really should take greater precedence on the odds. And that's not the case. Gujarat are as big as 1.9520/21 and that's disrespectful to a crack home team. It is very difficult to forget Mumbai's bowling economy of more than nine an over.

Tops value

Yadav matches up well against Gujarat and the [5/1] with Sportsbook is chunky on win rate. Likewise the 11/112.00 that he is top match bat. Shubmann Gill has 79 runs off 59 balls against these Mumbai bowlers so Sportsbook's boosted 11/43.75 that he top score for Titans will be popular.