Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Back Harpreet at 13/2 in low-scoring match

• Punjab favourites

• Chepauk pitch should be slowing up

• Clear trend for udners on runs

• Match sixes too high at 14.5

• Harpreet a steal at 13/27.50 top PBKS bowler

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Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings
Wednesday 30 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings IPL team news

Chennai's campaign is almost certainly over in terms of play-off aspirations. It has been a chaotic season and going into their 10th game they still don't know their best team.

The XI they are likely to line-up with on Wednesday was barely conceivable at the start of the tournament. There's no Devon Conway or Rachin Ravindra, Sam Curran has been bit-part, Jamie Overton in then out and they are opening with untested youngsters.

Probable CSK XI: Rasheed, Mahatre, S Curran, Jadeja, Brevis, Dube (Kamboj sub), Hooda, Dhoni, Noor, Khaleel, Pathirana

Punjab have changed tactics somewhat. They are going all-out in terms of batting power with Azmatullah Omarzai currently in the XI and bowling all-rounder Harpreet Brar being used as an impact player. They can bat down to number 10.

It does make the bowling look weak on any surface bar the spinning Chepauk. Arshdeep Singh and Marco Jansen have the potential to be potent but the spinners must wrest control. Xavier Bartlett and Marcus Stoinis have been dropped. 

Probable Punjab XI: Arya, Prab Singh (Harpreet), Iyer, Inglis, Wadhera, Maxwell, Shashank, Jansen, Omarzai, Chahal, Arshdeep

Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings IPL pitch report

We are at the stage of the season where we expect traffic on the Chepauk surface to start having an impact. Early on in the tournament these pages gave the stats about how the first two games were most likely to produce runs.

If we look at first-innings scores from the fourth game onwards (since 2023), the average first-innings score comes in at 160 from 11 games. 

The par line is currently set at unders 173.5. That bet would have won eight times in our study period. That includes the 154 by Chennai against Sunrisers but not the 103 against KKR this season.

We are  able to go under CSK runs at 170 on the lay button at 2.1011/10

Betfair Sportsbook go unders 14.5 sixes and for the same reasons we think that is a sell. Using the same study sample and filter, that bet would have won in all 11 matches. Only once did a match come within one hit of it being a loser.

If we combine the average sixes per match for each team this season the tally comes in bang on 14.5 so the pitch should make the difference. 

Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings IPL match prediction

Chennai's fall from grace is perfectly highlighted by the match odds for this one. They are 2.285/4 outsiders with Kings 1.768/11. Historically that really is a bonkers set of odds.

At home Chennai are renowned as being incredibly hard to beat and their IPL legacy is built on fortress Chepauk. It was also built on despatching flaky franchises like Punjab, who now suddenly turn up as favourites.

As discussed in the team news, we're not hugely enamoured with their changes but they do appear to make perfect sense on a potentially slow and low surface. Man for man they are superior and Punjab should take the points.

Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings IPL player bets

Yuz Chahal has won three of the last four top bowler markets for Punjab with hellow spin ace Harpreet taking one. It shows the switch in pitches perhaps from early on with surfaces more worn.

Yuz is 3/14.00 with Sportsbook for another win but Harpreet has to be considered value at a big-looking 13/27.50. He could take the win on fewest runs with wickets dead heating. Glenn Maxwell also has to come into the conversation for the same reason at 5/16.00. 

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