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Chennai getting stronger
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Delhi hanging on but must win
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Pathirana a revelation at the death
Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Capitals
Wednesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
As we reach the business end of the tournament, the most consistent side in IPL history are well placed to reach the play-offs for the 12th time in 15 attempts. One win from their last three may prove enough. Two would likely mean an top-2 finish and therefore two cracks at reaching the final.
CSK start strong favourites
Winning this game - for which they start strong 1.71 favourites on the exchange - is critical, though, because fellow heavyweights Mumbai Indians are now only one point behind.
A fortnight ago, you could have got long odds about Delhi's season still being alive. They sit joint bottom, but winning their last four would get them through. Three from four would leave an unlikely, yet possible, path. Capitals are seeking a third straight win after upsetting the odds against Gujurat and RCB.
Chennai bowling is much improved
Chennai were very impressive when downing Mumbai on Saturday, and look much stronger than at the start of the tournament. Their batting has generally been superb, hitting 200 four times when batting first. However their bowling was expensive.
Now though, Deepak Chahar has returned from injury, Tushar Deshpande is in contention for the Purple Cap, and Matheesha Pathirana is filling the void left by death bowling master Dwayne Bravo. The Sri Lankan was outstanding in Saturday's man of the match winning performance.
For Delhi, Phil Salt's overdue promotion to the side has brought some urgently needed back-up a top order that had been reliant on David Warner. Salt was man of the match with a superb 85 off 47 on Saturday.
Low scores frequent at this ground
Chennai's home ground is one of the lower scoring grounds and ripe for spin as the season wears on. 56% of 1st Innings Runs totals come in below 160 here. 65% of matches yielded ten or fewer sixes - a line usually available around 3.0 on the Total Sixes exchange market.
They were able to restrict Mumbai to just 139 last time, but that was an afternoon game with a dry pitch. That may affect today's market so I'd wait and see conditions before playing runs today. If Delhi bat first, that unders line on sixes would appeal if indeed available at 3.0 or better.
There is barely any bias in terms of defending or chasing, with the latter leading 13-12 in 25 games here over the past five years. That removes the main disincentive to betting pre-toss but, rather than take prohibitive odds about the clearly superior side, I'd prefer to wait for better in running. Place an in-play order to back Chennai at 2.1.
Today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Ruturaj Gaikwad and David Warner, boosted to 16/5 and 13/5 respectively to top-score for Chennai and Delhi.
One bet that appeals in the tops markets is Pathirana to be Top CSK Wicket Taker at 7/2. Granted, Deshpande has been prolific (if expensive), but these odds stand out about a bang-in-form player sure to bowl the final over.
*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty