Delhi are the side in considerably better form and are worth a punt, while Shikhar Dhawan can be trusted to get to another half-century, says Jamie Pacheco.
"The preference most certainly goes to Delhi. They’re in better form having won five of their last six while Chennai have won three from their last six, they have a more settled side and a huge fillip for us would be if Dhoni misses out again."
Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Capitals
Wednesday May 1, 15:30
Live on BT Sport 3
Chennai need to wake up and quickly
Chennai are second, tied on points with...the Delhi Capitals...and behind only on net run rate.
They were poor last time out in losing badly to the Mumbai Indians at home. They were without MS Dhoni (pictured below) for that match and despite the quality and experience throughout the squad, they just never look quite the same on the few occasions when he's not playing. He really is their King Pin.
Last time out they decided not to pick Faf du Plessis, instead bringing in old head Murali Vijay to open the batting alongside Shane Watson and picked Mitchell Santner as their fourth overseas player.
Vijay top-scored for them with 38 off 35 while Santner was good as well, hitting 22 off 20 from number eight and bowling beautifully.
His four overs went for just 13 runs and he took two wickets so he should keep his place.
Maybe Watson will be left out for this one, with du Plessis returning at the Australian's expense.
Unconventional Capitals keep on winning
The Capitals are proof of that old saying about there being more than one way to skin a cat. We're not so sure about that when it comes to our furry friends but let's stick to the cricket.
The best T20 sides tend to be the better-balanced ones. A classic IPL one would normally have an overseas batsman opening the innings, another one in the middle order, an all-rounder and a star bowler.
Not this one. They usually play Colin Ingram (pictured) in the middle-order and recently he's been joined at four wickets down by big-hitting Windies youngster Shane Rutherford with Kasigo Rabada as their star man with the ball and the likes of Chris Morris, Colin Munro and Sandeep Lamichhane taking turns to be the fourth foreigner.
Lamichhane was terribly expensive and wicketless last time out so it would be a surprise if he plays here.
Whatever the Capitals are doing, they're doing it right. They're top which is remarkable given they were the rags at the start.
Delhi worth a gamble
Chennai were flying at the start but all of a sudden tis match takes on huge importance. Win it and they're virtually guaranteed the all-important Top 2 finish, lose it and that will start to look pretty unlikely if Mumbai (who have a considerably better net run rate) win their next match.
Chennai, who are favourites against just about anyone and anywhere, are 1.768/11 with Delhi out at 2.245/4.
The preference most certainly goes to Delhi. They're in better form having won five of their last six while Chennai have won three from their last six, they have a more settled side and a huge fillip for us would be if Dhoni misses out again.
It's a risky business playing the Delhi Capitals top batsman market. Their Top 5 is the best in the competition meaning any of them can win this market on any given day. And whereas we have a soft spot for Shikhar Dhawan - not just because of his class and beautiful strokeplay but also because he's their top-runscorer - at 11/4, what we don't want is a repeat of what happened when they played Rajasthan last week.
Dhawan got to 54 off just 27 balls but Rishabh Pant (10/3 this time round) came along and hit 78 off 36 to beat him to top batsman honours.
So the better bet, albeit at a slightly shorter price, is to go with the classy left-hander to get to 50. He's managed it five times in 12 attempts this season and in each of his last three games. A Dhawan 50 is 11/5.
Chennai's home ground is one of those where spin becomes more and more of a factor as the IPL goes on. As Ed Hawkins pointed out ahead of their defeat to Mumbai, a spinner would have won (or dead-heated) in eight out of 10 innings at this ground. We already mentioned Santner got two I that game and yes, he was their top wicket-taker on the day.
We also already said that he's likely to be given another game given he put in a strong show last time out, particularly with the ball. The only reason I can think of as to why he's 4/1 whereas the likes of Imran Tahir (12/5), Dwayne Bravo (3/1, pictured above) and Harbhajan Singh (10/3) are considerably shorter is because they've taken far more wickets than the Kiwi.
Hardly surprising; it was only his fourth game while some of those have played 12.
On a wicket that should suit him and at a far bigger price, he's a good bet.
Jamie's 2019 IPL P&L
1pt Back Delhi to beat Chennai @ 2.265/4
1pt Back Shikhar Dhawan to score a 50 @ 11/5
1pt Back Mitchell Santner to be Chennai Top Bowler @ 4/1