India v England Third Test Player Tips: Retain faith in Bairstow going big

Ed Hawkins finds bets at 7.206/1, 12/113.00 and 14/115.00 on the player markets for game three at rajkot from Thursday...

  • Bairstow a bet at 7.206/1

  • Ax man cometh at 14s

  • Pitch may take spin in the 4th

  • India v England
    Thursday 15 February
    , 04.00
    TV: Live on TNT Sports

    Player of the match

    Two Tests in and the expected domination by spinners hasn't happened. Could that change in Rajkot? Possibly.

    We don't expect a raging turner. But we could well see a surface which takes wear and tear, making tweak crucial in the third and fourth.

    In the most recent Ranji Trophy matches we have seen big first-innings runs and then games won by spinners. Parth Bhat and Lalith Mohan, slow left-armers both, have each one a game in the fourth-innings for Saurashtra in the last four.

    Revisiting man of the match prices for India spinners Ravi Jadeja at 7/18.00, Ravi Ashwin at 8/19.00, Kudeep Yadav at 12/113.00 and Axar Patel at 14/115.00 have appeal. All four won't play but we'll plump for the two biggest prices just because Jadeja is coming back to fitness and Ashwin has looked a little short of zip. Kuldeep took five in the fourth to win the game against West Indies in the last Test played at the venue.

    We return to play Axar Patel for a first-innings fifty at 4/15.00 with Sportsbook. it's four wins in 14 for Axar who is becoming increasingly important with the bat. he will be expected to knuckle down and bat properly, moving away from lower-order cameos.

    Back Axar Patel 1st inns 50 @ 4/15.00

    Bet now

    Back Axar Patel man of match @ 14/115.00

    Bet now

    Back Kuldeep Yadav man of match @ 12/113.00

    Bet now

    Top England first-innings bat

    Jonny Bairstow could do with a score. He has had three strong starts in four innings before - on ocassion - gifting his wicket.

    He is the one standout price, however, on top England first-innings bat. On two-year wins rates Bairstow cops 17.6% of the time. On Betfair Exchange 7.206/1 is available, rated at 13.9%.

    A flatter, truer surface first up in Rajkot could get him ticking and he perhaps performs best when there are question marks over his place. There's a sense that he is beginning to bristle at suggestions that his powers are on the wane and if we think back to the Ashes it spurred him into action.

    Ollie Pope is a fancy to go well because of his epic in game on. There's a 0.6% edge at 9/25.50 with Sportsbook. Pope looked masterful against spin and although he had a disappointing return in game two, he was the victim of a jasprit Bumrah special.

    Back Jonny Bairstow top England 1st inns bat @ 7.26/1

    Bet now

    Top India first-innings bat

    There's not much jot to be had for top India bat in terms of win rates. For purely selfish reasons, Virat Kohli's continued bsence for the series is unfortunate. He had four wins in 14.

    A solitary win for Rohit Sharma over the same means we cannot countenance the 3/14.00 on offer for top India bat in the first dig. Yas Jaiswal, after a double in game two, is the same price. Jasiwal is a cracking player but that's skinny about a Test ingenue.

    The man we've been looking forward to seeing at the highest level is Sarfaraz. he has been a run machine domestically. he's broken numerous ranji trophy records and in 2022 had a first-class average only second to Don Bradman. he is not a flash in the pan, poutting runs together for year after years. it will all come down to temperament.

    He took 161, 55 and 96 off the England Lions in january. He is 6/17.00 for top bat but in-play we're looking to go long of his runs at around the 23.5 mark at 5/61.84.

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Ed Hawkins P-L

2024: -19.71
2023: +77.75
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt

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