India v England
Friday 2 February, 04.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Ravi Ashwin took eight wickets in the last Test at Vizag and didn't win man of the match. It's a bad beat that he could put right.
The gong went to Rohit Sharma for twin centuries. but more on him later. Our focus is on spin and how best to make it pay.
Ashwin at 8/19.00 for the award makes sense, particularly as Ravi Jadeja is out. Jadeja was a live runner until Ollie Pope's ton swung the game in England's favour in Hyderabad.
Without Jadeja, Ashwin will shoulder more responsibility and overs. It could make the difference.
We should also keep Axar Patel on side. He could bat up the order and the 10/111.00 also warrants a bet. In India's last 13 home Tests a spinner has won man of the match five times.
Ashwin is 21/10 for top India first-innings bowler but that's a little skinny from that study sample mentioned. Axar gives around 1% on win rate at 11/43.75. Still, that's some cut from 4/15.00 from Hyderbad.
Back to Rohit. The India captain smashed two tons versus the Proteas and the feelgood factor should make him confident.
Alas, there's minimal value on his odds. For a fifty in the first-innings he needs a hit rate of 44% at 5/42.25. In the last three years he's got a rate of 28.5%.
Of India's options we come back to Axar who has four 50s in 13. At 12/53.40 you're getting more than seven points in your favour.
For England we are keen on Joe Root, Ollie Pope and Jonny Bairstow for runs.
Root gives us a small edge on his 9/25.50 for a first-innings century with a majestic record in Asia.
Pope has an average player performace per game make-up of 68 in his Test career (not including matches when he kept wicket). Sportsbook go 5/61.84 that he scores over 60.5 player performance points. With both innings in-play and catches worth 10 points, it might be more shrewd than straight first-innings runs overs. He's been cut across all other markets leaving no room for us.
Bairstow has the same return rate as Pope (too skiny at 7/24.50) for top England bat so the 6/17.00 is worth an interest.
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