England are on the brink of defeat in Ahmedabad on day three. Ed Hawkins is live with all the bets, market moves and analysis
INDIA WIN BY AN INNINGS AND 25 RUNS
We end the series with a winner. We called a day three evening finish yesterday. Should have been more negative about England throughout and been brave but it is often hard to take a price when wickets fall at such a clatter so consistently. You're constantly reacting to overreactions on odds, although they eventually prove to be right. One for the notebook. Hope the blog has been useful. In the meantime, check New Zealand v Australia preview here for tonight's contest where we find three wagers.
INDIA WIN BY AN INNINGS AND 25 RUNS
All done. So, as we were saying, who survives for England's next Test outing - against new Zealand in June? Well, Crawley, Root, Stokes, Pope, Lawrence, Buttler, Leach, Anderson, Broad and Archer, injuries and availability permitting, will be there. Moeen deserves to be recalled. Lawrence is England's only 'discovery' of the series. Burns, Sibley, Bairstow and Bess have all harmed their careers. The latter perhaps fatally.
WICKET 10.15 Eng 132-8
The end is nigh for this series. What have we learnt about England? They can't play spin. We sort of knew that. What else?
10.02 Eng 132-8
Worth remembering that Gavaskar told us that batting in India was a test of skill. Everywhere else was a test of courage. India will play the WTC final at Lord's in August against New Zealand. Three spinners won't do them much good there. Nor will these pitches. As a formguide they are irrelevant. Axar, who has been excellent in this series, is unlikely to make the XI, likewise Washington and a fit-again Ravi Jadeja. What India have proved here is dominance and bench strength at home. At HQ they will have to combat seam and swing against the best pace attack in the world, A completely different ball game.
WICKET 09.56 Eng 125-8
New Zealand and Australia meet tonight in the deciding T20. There are plenty of bets to be had. Here's our preview. Could really do with India wrapping this up. England trail by 37. Need this winner for a day three finish.
WICKET 09.33 Eng 111-8
Might also add that the first Test pitch in Chennai was not a big turner. India corrected that since. Nor did India have Axar for game one. They ahd Ashwin but Washington and Shahbaz were innocuous. (Bess out btw)
England started this series with partnerships of 63, 0, 200, 124 and 86. Since then 72 completed partnerships and none has reached 50. Says it all, really? Simon Wilde (@swildecricket) March 6, 2021
WICKET 09.33 Eng 109-7
Rahane snares Foakes with a sharp catch to keep us in the hunt for a three-day finish. Rahane wasn't sure whether he caught it and asked for it to be referred. What a great man. There are 22 overs left. That gives India an extra seven overs on average overs per wicket to complete the win today.
09.22 Eng 104-6
India over due a wicket by more than five overs. Suggests that the wicket has got easier. Or rather the ball has got softer. England in for 159.5 according to Sportsbook. That could be a wager on unders at 10/11 if you are not already exposed on a three-day finish.
09.02 Eng 95-6
Back after the break. There are 32 overs left in the day. India need four wickets. On averages per wicket and overs per wicket, India are unlikely to be required to bat again. India overdue a wicket from the 35th.
TEA 08.40 Eng 80-6
India waste a review on a Lawrence lbw. These two doing okay but India are 12 balls from being overdue a wicket. England are 69 behind. One would expect India to win this game today.
WICKET 08.13 Eng 65-6
Ha. They will do very, very, very well to get 135. Root lbw. Lawrence and Foakes in. Can they make it to tea?
08.09 Eng 65-5
That wicket fell in the 25th. Which is bang on the average we were talking about yesterday. We've done another study in the meantime, to back up that stat. England lose a wicket (excluding that first dig in Chennai) at just a shade over every five overs. They average 14.09 runs per wicket. That means they will doo very, very well to score 135. Sportsbook go under 156.5 at 10/11.
07.42 Eng 42-4
Gavaskar been given a cake now. Perhaps we could also mark the anniversary of when he attempted to forfeit the MCG Test in 1981? Or his deliberate go-slow in the World Cup - 36 off 174 because he was in a sulk - in 1975? Or his 'me first, team second' duels with Kapil Dev?
WICKET 07.24 Eng 30-4
Stokes gone. This could be over very quickly indeed. Maybe even in this session, which would be nice. Ollie Pope the new man. Really needs a score. England's batting depth has taken a whopping hit in this series and the last thing they need is to leave the tour with worries about this fella. Sibley, Burns, Lawrence and Bairstow have all harmed their careers over the last few weeks. Well, maybe not Lawrence but he's not enhanced his chances currently.
07.17 Eng 29-3
Zain's on the money...England should be four down by the 20th
@cricketbetting yesterday you mentioned England wickets on average are falling every 5 overs in the third innings. Hit wicket in over 5 and 10 at 8.0 today. One for the blog!? Zain (@Amazain) March 6, 2021
07.17 Eng 29-3
One thing we won't miss about this series in Sunil Gavaskar. Keep your fingers crossed he's not wheeled out again in the summer. His main thrusts of conversation on comms has been how great he is, which records he broke and (I swear he mentions this every Test) how he got an ouchy fielding close in. He was presented with a commemorative cap at the break to mark the anniversary of his debut. Since when was that a thing? Perhaps BCCI could also present him with something for being one of the worst value Test bets of all time. TO £10 level stakes for top India first-innings bat he would have cost you a total of £599.
WICKET 07.12 Eng 20-3
Sibley has faced 21 balls for three. The great thing about shorting Sibley runs (1.5) is that he is such a turgid, strokeless sort in these conditions that he could bat for a day and you'd still be in with a shout at the last. Keep going India please.
07.01 Eng 14-2
There are 60 overs left today. We need India to take eight wickets in quick time to get us a winner for a finish today. Tough times for the batsmen. Pitch not doing a huge amount but England all at sea against the AA (Axar and Ashwin). India absolutely buzzing, fielders round the bat. It doesn't get much tougher if you've been brought up on green seamers in May. Sportsbook go England under 174.5 at 10/11. One of those which could look very toppy in an hour, let alone the context of the series.
WICKET 06.49 Eng 10-2
An awful tour for Bairstow, who goes first ball. Three ducks in four innings. Bet he wishes he was still in quarantine. Bet England wish he was still in quarantine. Might be worth quarantining his Test career.
WICKET 06.49 Eng 10-1
England lose their first wicket after the break.And it's to one which, guess what, went straight on. Ashwin removes Crawley.
LUNCH 06.04 Eng 6-0
How many do England get, then? Well in third innings away from home in the last three years they average 29.2 runs per wicket. That's strong. In Asia that figure comes down to 25. They would do very well indeed to manage the latter. A repeat of that would give them their second-highest score in the series. What chance that, at the very last, they have finally found a way to combat Axar and Aswin? Unlikely. That sort of brainwave happens in between games not during. They are even money to go under 194.5
WICKET 05.34 Ind 363
Oh Siraj! Backed away from Stokes and is bowled. Washington is denied a maiden Test century. And England now have to strap their pads on and bat like they have not managed to bat all series. And we're deliberating excluding the first innings in Chennai because this pitch or India attack - is far more threatening. India lead 160. England will do well to make India bat again. India 1.061/18 and England 23.022/1.
WICKET 05.34 Ind 363-9
Or maybe not. Ishant goes first ball. Poor old Wash running out of partners at the crucial time. It would be a terrible shame if he was left stranded. India led by 160.
WICKET 05.34 Ind 363-8
England thieve a wicket with a run out. They are lucky to get it. Axar sent back. Ishant is the new batsman. Washington is unbeaten on 96. Not convinced in the least that the end of the innings is imminent. England have shown few positive character attributes in this session.
05.29 Ind 363-7
England average 232 for all-out scores in third-innings in India in 14 Tests since 1984. To set India a minimum of 150, they are going to have to make 300. That's something they have achieved in the third innings only six times in India.
05.11 Ind 348-7
England have leaked 200+ runs SIX times after fall of 6th wkt in Tests since 2016:? Richard V Isaacs (@RVICricketStats) March 6, 2021
Pak 320/6-> 542 (Oval 2016)
Ind 204/6-> 417 (Mohali 2016)
Ind 307/6-> 631 (Mumbai 2016)
WI 120/6-> 415/6d (Bridgetown 2019)
NZ 316/6-> 615/9d (Mt Maunganui 2019)
Ind 146/6-> 346/7* Today#INDvENG
04.57 Ind 342-7
England getting pumped. Washington is approaching a maiden Test century. The run rate is 3.69 in this session. England have not even looked remotely threatening. Resolve and vim in short supply. A portent for when they bat perhaps?
04.29 Ind 321-7
The overs on 2.5? Now cut to 4/7. Ha. Early bird catches the worm and all that. Leach is on anyway. Bess's second over went for ten.
Here are England's last ten third-innings scores away from home...
04.16 Ind 299-7
And Sundar plonks him for six first ball. Second ball? Four. That'll be the end of our edge on that market pretty early one suspects. Why are England even bowling him this morning? Has Leach got the willies? Jesus. We had two bets late on yesterday for Test Match End in the second and final session today. We thought they were great value at 4.2016/5 and 3.8014/5 respectively. But they do involve England being moderately smart in the field. And this ain't smart.
BET 04.12 Ind 299-7
We hit on a nice edge though. Bess has been so leaky that we were taking on his individual runs quote of overs overs. You can back him for to concede 2.5 or more at 5/4 with Sportsbook in his next over. We did it consistently yesterday for profit. We don't expect the 5/4 to last. or the 2.5. Sportsbook cut the former and boosted the latter on day two. Surprised they've not started off at 3.5 and odds-on.
03.56 Ind 299-7
At 146-6 yesterday, England had India right where they wanted them. There was even a chance they could bowl them out for an innings lead. Then, as if faced with the enormity of what they could achieve they went to pieces. Jack Leach lost his line and length. Dom Bess didn't pack either in his kit bag. James Anderson was spent. Ben Stokes was about to be. And the absence of a fourth specialist bowler meant Rishabh Pant was able to barge open the door of super stardom with an innings of quality. A couple of overs in, England look very, very flat this morning.
03.56 Ind 294-7
Morn. For the last time of our in-play blog this series? Could be. England bang up against that wall on day three. They are 89 behind. They have made more than 200 once (in the first innings) since the first Test in Chennai, which seems a long time ago, and they are going to have to go some way past that of they are to test India in a chase of 175 or more. They could well be bruised, beleaguered and eyeing the departures lounge. Price check? Not much point really because India are 1.091/11 and England are 13.05. Their innings runs market should provide plenty of ammo here, though.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end