India v England First ODI Tips: Spin peril makes England vulnerable to a beating

India v England First ODI Cricket Superboost

After a scintilating T20 series between India and England we now turn to the first ODI of the series between the two sides.

Ahead of this match the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted the price for Joe Root to hit 4+ boundaries off the bat with him having four boundaries and 60 runs in last ODI.

This has been boosted from 10/111.91 to 5/42.25. Just click on the odds in the below banner to go to the Sportsbook market.

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India v England
Thursday 6 February, 08:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

India v England First ODI team news

India welcome back Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli as the prep begins for the Champions Trophy. Players now considered ODI specialists in Shubman Gill, KL Rahul and Shreyas Iyer are included in the squad while Rishabh Pant is also available.

There is no Jasprit Bumrah named in the squad for the first two games but that could change for the game to follow. One would expect Arshdeep Singh and Mohammad Shami to take the new ball. The selection dilemma may focus on how many spinners are required.

Kuldeep Yadav and Ravi Jadeja should be the two main tweakers but a third could be added in the shape of Axar Patel. The decision may come down to two from Axar, Hardik Pandya and Rahul. 

Possible India XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Pant, Hardik, Axar, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Shami, Arshdeep

When your white-ball unit has been struggling in T20 against spin it must be a relief to see Joe Root walk through the door. Root was superb in the SAT20 and his return is a major boost.

Otherwise there is little change in terms of personnel. The same problems remain to be solved; Phil Salt's unreliability, Gus Atkinson's role in white ball, do they have a genuine second spin threat? England will answer only one of those with Salt named in the XI, Saqib Mahmood and spin duty shared between Liam Livingstone and Jacob Bethell.

England XI: Salt, Duckett, Root, Brook, Buttler, Bethell, Livingstone, Carse, Archer, Rashid, Mahmood

India v England First ODI pitch report

There are two VCA grounds in Nagpur. It appears this game is being played in the one which hosted the most recent ODI in 2019. There were two relatively low-scoring contests between India and Australia. There were runfests in 2013 and 2011.

Immediately we check both teams to score markets with Sportsbook and the price that jumps out is the 6/52.20 that both manage 250. Ordinarily we are wary of such a market because it feels greedy. As punters we need to predict only one thing for a winner, not two. So backing overs on a par line if India were batting first is often a much easier wager (particularly mentally) instead of relying on England's batters. But this price does sort of keep onside the possibility of England crumbling to spin. In short, 250 really isn't a very difficult score.

India v England First ODI match predicition

England versus Indian spin is the game. That is why India are so short at 1.528/15. England, hapless again turn in the T20 series defeat, are 2.9215/8. 

It is hard to consider the latter a bet. With a potential 30 overs of spin to face, it is probable that England's weakness will be more acute. Root will combat that, of course, but hanging your hopes on one batter doesn't seem like a smart strategy.

The option for match odds, then, seems reliant on England getting some foothold in the game if they were to bat first on a Nagpur road. Any sort of drift in India's price to close to even money would represent a wager. There's not huge confidence in England defending if they go with three pacers. They just fly on these pitches. England have also had an issue bowling first and have lost six of their last 10.

India v England First ODI player bets

There are win-rate options for batters to follow. Rohit's return gets us interested with a mark of 33% (bang on a 2s chance) in the last two years and a price of 7/24.50. Rohit may be one to follow, though, once he has had a couple of knocks. For England, Ben Duckett (four wins in 10) and Harry Brook (23%) are bets at 9/25.50 and 4/15.00. 

For all of England's issues against spin, it is hard to take a price on Kuldeep, the top spinner, at 7/24.50 given that he wins at 18%. Ravi Jadeja, though, at 11/26.50 is solid. He might not win outright but a spinner in a dead heat could well take the win on economy. Shami is returning at 43% and is 11/43.75. There's nowt wrong with betting him but we are swayed by England's problems. 

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