Australia v India WTC Final Tips: Aussies to turn up heat on underdone India

• Aussies favourites for glory

• India in white-ball mode

• Swing could win it

Australia v India
Wednesday 7 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Australia are not at full-strength. Josh Hazlewood has been ruled out and one has to question his availability for an Ashes series for which they are favourites.

Their bowling stock is strong, though. Scott Boland is perfect for English conditions while Michael Neser could have a big say this summer.

With the bat, a score for a price-boosted David Warner should confirm his spot for the Ashes but a failure brings questions and pressure. Luckily Usman Khawaja is in the form of his life while Travis Head is first-class.

Probable XI: Khawaja, Warner, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Lyon

India are not at full-strength, either. KL Rahul and Shreyas Iyer would be opening-bat amd middle-order locks respectively while Jasprit Bumrah remains injured.

Instead, Shubman Gill will have to convert IPL form on the toughest stage of all while India will hope for the old, stodgier version of Ajinkya Rahane. Gill may be targeted for a runs short with Sportsbook. A barometer as to how clear India's thinking is whether they go for Ishan Kishan or KS Bharat with the gloves. If it's not the specialist Bharat we fear they've not switched on.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Pujara, Kohli, Rahane, Bharat, Jadeja, Thakur, Shami, Siraj, Umesh

Pitch report

One has to fear for India's batters here with zero preparation time, bar the redoubtable Chet Pujara who has three tons in county cricket. It's such a huge gulf to bridge in such a short space of time that anything around a par quote of 310.5 in the first dig is a short. Australia could have the red ball zipping and swinging and rearing.

The Oval is a long way from the road of Ahmedabad. In the last four Tests there have been only four all out scores of 350 or more in all innings. The first three days are rain free.

How to play

Australia are 2.021/1, India 2.982/1 and the draw is 5.805/1. It's a market which seems to be unsure about the two teams' preparation.

On the one hand you have Australia who have been in camp for long enough to work hard in conditions while Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Neser have enjoyed good county stints.

Then India who have had no red-ball prep with a chunk of their squad still in IPL mode. Perhaps that recent competitive cricket gives them an edge?

That's India's best hope. Otherwise there is a lot against them. They are a touring outfit who have needed time to adjust, hence their record of six wins in their last 17 'first' away Tests.

Last year's defeat by New Zealand in this final was a case in point. Their players couldn't switch on to a moving red ball and they were well beaten. They drew against England in their next game and then improved markedly, taking a series lead.

However, when they left before the final Test because of Covid their sluggish start returned and they ended up drawing a series they should have won when the match was rescheduled. Again, they were beaten. They should suffer again here.

Tops value

Rohit Sharma made a sublime ton on his last appearance in Tests at the ground and is at 9/25.50 for top India bat in the first dig. Virat Kohli is price boosted to 3/14.00 with Betfair Sportsbook. Pujara is 7/24.50. With the ball, Mohammad Shami may be best-suited to conditions and such is his artistry that 2/13.00 top India bowler is a price.

For Australia, Labuschagne's county stint means the 3/14.00 for top Aussie bat may prove popular. Smith is fav at 13/53.60. Pat Cummins is the same price as Shami for top Aussie bowler while if we're right about he and his bowlers swinging the game, the 33s about Boland for man of the match is eye-catching.

*Don't miss Ed Hawkins' in-play advice for every day of the WTC Final on betting.betfair