Australia v India WTC Final Day Two In-play Tips: Aussies to grind down India

• Australia take command

• Draw price to shorten

• Gill could struggle

Australia v India
Day 2, Thursday 8 June
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Lay the draw in-play from 2.26/5

After day one at The Oval it is fair to say that India are in grave danger of losing consecutive World Test Championship Finals. Not that the Betfair Exchange match odds market wholeheartedly agrees.

Despite Australian dominance - closing on 327-3 - with Steve Smith and Travis Head in fine form their price has stubbornly refused to budge south. They have hovered between the 1.70 and 1.85 mark, settloing at 1.814/5. Clearly there is a view that the surface in Kennington is of the old-fashioned road variety for these parts.

There have been murmurings about a poor weather forecast for the weekend impacting pricing but with a reserve day in place to make up any lost overs to help force a result, the anticipation is surely that these two teams bat, bat and bat to a sharing of the prize.

We disagree. The new ball did plenty on the first morning. The wicket has looked lush. And there were even signs of variable bounce late on day one. It may not be classed as tricky tomorrow, or even the next day, but it is not a track which India are likely to relish batting last one.

There are two options, then. To steam into those chunky prices about Australia, or to get against the draw. For those who followed pre-toss advice about Australia winning, there is little motivation at an inferior price. But if you missed out, have a go. Alternatively the draw lay has increasing appeal at the one price that is contracting sharply. We are aware that it could get skinnier and skinnier though the more time Australia bat. Looking for 2.206/5 in play is advised.

Top India first-innings runscorer

There's not a huge amount of value washing around this market (see the win rates below). Virat Kohli as the best technician and with the most wins will have support at a boosted 3/14.00, particularly as he's protected from the new ball.

But we're not unhappy with the 50/151.00 chance on Shardul Thakur to win it with a lower-order score. The potential for India collpase is strong against an excellent Australia attack and with no red-ball preparation at all under their belt.

To that end, Shubman Gill is one to watch against the new ball. His runs could be available to short at around 29.5 with Sportsbook. He has a tendency to play across his front pad and biffing the white ball around Ahmedabad is no way to warm up for the ultimate test. Alternatively keep an early Rohit Sharma mistake on board at go under the fall of the first wicket .

Top India 1st innings bat wins/matches last two years
Kohli 4/17
Rohit 2/11
Rahane 1/9
Pujara 1/17
Jadeja 1/13

India first-innings runs

In the context of the match odds movement, India's first-innings par line reinforces the idea that it's the weather forecast which is dictating terms. Surely otherwise we should be able to short at around the 330.5 mark at this juncture. In time we may well do so.

India have played 11 Tests in England in the last five years. But they have been tasked with batting in the second match innings in only four of them. It is a notable trend that they have failed to pass 300 in each of them, although three innings were in 2018. They managed 278 against England in the second match innings in 2021, which was worth a first-innings lead of 95.

In all of those first-innings, they have passed 300 three times which gives credence to the belief that their batters struggle against the seaming, swinging or wobbling red ball. By filtering the five Test played since 2021, including the defeat by New Zealand in the previous World Test Championship Final, India average 257.