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Thursday 17 September, 15.00
TV: Sky Sports
Afghanistan v India third T20 team news
Afghanistan had hoped to hurt India with their elite spin attack. But twice their batting has underperformed on a flat Arun Jaitley surface to pile the pressure on their bowling attack.
Rashid Khan, Mujeeb ur Rahman and Noor Ahmad are three fine bowlers but defending 156 and then 159 is an onerous task. There will no doubt be discussions about whether Afghanistan should pick an extra fast bowler in Naveen-ul-Haq. The focus should instead be on how to put pressure on India's bowlers.
Given that Faz Farooqi bowled only one over of pace and Azmatullah Omarzai two, it could be a straight swap with the former dropping out for Naveen. Mind you, if you're not going to give your best quick the new ball, what's the point of playing one at all?
Afghanistan could gamble on four spinners plus Omarzai and play the extra all-rounder given the difficulties they have had in posting a competitive score. Nangeyalia Kharote stands by.
Possible XI: Zadran, Gurbaz, Atal, Rasooli, Naib, Omarzai, Nabi, Kharote, Rashid, Mujeeb, Noor
India have outclassed Afghanistan and have barely broken sweat in building a 2-0 lead. It is possible that they make changes to their XI to test bench strength.
One player who would seem obvious to rest is Jasprit Bumrah. India are having to manage his workload so there seems little point in risking him with the series won and nothing new to learn for either party. Yash Thakur stands by. Ravi Bishnoi has replaced the injured Varun Chakravarthy in the spinner role.
Another switch could be made at the top of the order. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi could come in for one of Sanju Samson or Abhishek Sharma in the opener slot. Sooryavanshi would be making a home debut and it would make sense to do it with pressure off on what has been a flat track. Another change could see one of the all-rounders (Nitish Kumar Reddy or Shivam Dube) make way for Washington Sundar.
Possible XI: Samson,/Abhishek, Sooryavanshi, Ishan, Shreyas, Tilak, Axar, Sundar, Reddy, Bishnoi, Arshdeep, Yash
Afghanistan v India third T20 pitch report
The hoped-for run glut from the home team is yet to materialise because Afghanistan have twice batted first and flopped. But there seems to be little wrong with the Arun Jaitley Stadium surface. India's run rates in the chases show that, comfortably busting ten an over and a shade over 11. The boundaries are short.
Fingers crossed, then, that it is India's turn. More than 210 should be well within their remit. Sportsbook offer over 187.5 for first-innings runs. That's confirmation this is a good track. If you're prepared to gamble that the flip goes India's way then you could have either a corker or stressful bet respectively. On the exchange, betting India over 210, 220, 230 and 240 is a strategy.
As stated before, India sixes and fours markets are inextricably linked to how Afghanistan bat unless they get first use. The India line for maximums at 11.5 for game two fell one short. Sportsbook have dropped the quote to 10.5. That is above India's average of 9.7 in the last 30 matches but doesn't feel like such a risky wager.
Afghanistan v India third T20 match prediction
It has been quite the achievement for Afghanistan to twice be given the chance to get a foothold in a mismatch and twice stumble and fall flat on their face from their very first step into the contest.
Few would have considered it irrational to reckon that Afghanistan would be capable of reducing their odds even slightly in-play. But they have not managed it. They have got bigger and bigger and bigger. Patience, then, has run out.
The focus is on India dominance. Betting India at 2/13.00 to have the highest opening partnership, first-over score and six-over score is fine.
The best option, though, could be India's six-over score. Betfair Sportsbook offer over 66.5 at 5/61.84 and that has the feel of a bet. It's well within their grasp given their run rates and removes fears about the Afghanistan batting flopping again. If anything, another failure from them would increase the likelihood of an India onslaught in double-quick time.
Back India over 66.5 six over runs
Afghanistan v India third T20 player tips
Ishan Kishan has looked in great touch in his two innings so far. He is overdue a win on the top bats having been India's highest-ranked on win rate in the last two years. Betting him to deliver is perfectly acceptable. Betfair Sportsbook offer 4/15.00.
For Afghanistan Mohammad Nabi is often underrated and the 12/113.00 is too big. He does have a win to his name in the last couple of years and could be worth a small-stakes interest.