Pakistan v New Zealand Champions Trophy Tips: Kiwis clear value in crucial clash

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor Champions Trophy Ultimate Guide

Pakistan v New Zealand Superboost

Pakistan play New Zealand in the first game of this year's Champions Trophy and the Betfair Sportsbook have a superboost for the game.

In the last two ODIs at the venue over 45 runs has been busted in the first 10 overs on both occasions, and we have super-boosted the price for 45+ runs in the first 10 overs on Wednesday from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00.

Pakistan v New Zealand
Wednesday 19 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pakistan v New Zealand Champions Trophy team news

Pakistan are sweating on the fitness of Haris Rauf, who has a strained muscle. They are likely to miss his wicket-taking ability with the ball. 

Faheem Ashraf, the all-rounder, took his spot in the defeat by New Zealand in the tri-series final. Faheem does add batting ballast which isn't a bad thing. They are short on all-rounders and miss a classy spin option who can bat. Shadab Khan, for example. Khushdil Shah is trying for that role.

In terms of spin they are disappoiNting and it is rare for them to come up against non-asian teams who can more than match them in that department. Abrar Ahmed doesn't convince. 

Possible Pakistan XI: Fakhar, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Shakeel, Tayyab, Khushdil, Faheem, Afridi, Naseem, Abrar

New Zealand are also waiting on the fitness of a key player. Rachin Ravindra missed the last two matches in the tri-series and then a Champions Trophy warm-up win over Afghnaistan. He has been under concussion protocols.

If Ravindra is fit he should return to the opening slot. Who he is alongside is the question. Will Young has been their most reliable batter in the last two years but has hit a sticky patch. Devon Conway has been a more than able deputy for Ravindra. It would be harsh on Young but one suspects they go with Conway's experience.

Otherwise they are well-stocked with batting power. They may have one of the best engine rooms in the tournament. Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke are excellent pace options. Lockie Ferguson is out of the tournament with kyle jamieson replacing him. It will mean Nathan Smith, who can bat, keeps his spot.

Possible New Zealand XI: Young, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Smith/Ferguson, Henry, O'Rourke

Pakistan v New Zealand Champions Trophy pitch report

The Karachi surface was a road in the South Africa-Pakistan tri-series game. Pakistan managed their highest ODI chase when going after 352 at the venue and they did so with relative ease. For the final, Pakistan managed only 242 all out. 

That has damaged our faith a bit in this being a flat one. It certainly wouldn't be a bad idea if Pakistan tried to negate New Zealand's battting by producing something slow and low, playing to the strengths of their own middle order and trying to help their spinners. Whether we play overs on the par line depends on what the line is. If it's low 300s or just under it probably makes sense to play.

Pakistan v South Africa ODI match prediction

New Zealand won both the head-to-heads in the tri-series, defending and then chasing. They should be shorter on the match odds market as a result. The 2.245/4 is a perfectly good bet for a contest that could be closer to a choice affair.

Obviously Pakistan were going to be favourites at home but they are almost always a swerve at odds-on in white-ball formats. They can be chaotic. But this is more about Kiwi efficiency.

As an example, they have twice squeezed the Pakistan middle order expertly, something South Africa had no clue how to do in that massive chase. In what is a virtual quarter-final if you subscribe to the view that Bangladesh are whipping boys in Group A, New Zealand can put one foot in the semis. Remember, India are also in Group A and the top two go through to the last four. 

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI player bets

New Zealand may abandon Will Young for runs but we won't. At 9/25.50 he is value for top Kiwi bat and likewise at 11/53.20 for a 50. Young has a win rate of 30% in the last two years on top bats. if he doesn't play then it is money back. Sportsbook are bang on at 5/23.50 on Matt Henry in terms of win rate versus implied probability for top Kiwi bowler.

Fakhar Zaman and Mohammad Rizwan are two win-rate options for top bat at 10/34.33 and [9/2]. On ability and form there is no way Salman Agha should be as big as 13/27.50. With the ball, we will back Shaeen Afridi for top Pakistan bowler, going in again if we get word on Rauf's absence. The two dominate the market in the last two years with the pair winning almost 60% of the time between them. Afridi is 13/53.60. 

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!