New Zealand v South Africa Champions Trophy Tips: Kiwis can book final spot

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New Zealand v South Africa
Wednesday 5 March, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa Champions Trophy team news

New Zealand are again likely to consider dropping Will Young for Devon Conway. The opener seems to be under constant pressure for his spot and a failure against India in Dubai wouldn't have helped his cause.

Otherwise the Kiwis should remain unchanged. They have hit upon an excellent pace combination of Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke. Jamieson was an injury replacement. But they have not lost their spin threat with a potential 40 overs of tweak still available

Probable XI: Young/Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke

South Africa have had an injury scare with Aiden Markram suffering a hamstring injury. Spinner George Linde has been called up as cover but he has not officially been included in the squad. Markram will have a late fitness test.

Temba Bavuma, the captain, and Tony de Zorzi are available for selection having recovered from illness. Tristan Stubbs, a duck against England, will come out for Bavuma. Lungi Ngidi looked to be a little sore against England but is expected to play.

Probable XI:  Rickleton, Bauma, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Mulder, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi

New Zealand v South Africa Champions Trophy pitch report

The Lahore surface has been good for batting. First-innings scores of 351, 325 and 273 so far do suggest a tailing off but the naked eye says otherwise. England's 351 against Australia was probably 30 short. And Australia were racing to the win against Afghanistan's 273 before rain. The par line is currently at overs 315.5 and that may look pretty cheap. We would have more faith in the Kiwis busting it, though, as South Africa may have questioinable plans and discipline in the field. That gives a clue as to views on the match odds. No rain is forecast.

New Zealand v South Africa Champions Trophy match prediction

South Africa are 1.845/6 favourites against New Zealand, who are 2.166/5 on the Betfair Exchange. It is hard to agree that the odds are the right way round.

From the admittedly limited action so far, New Zealand have looked to be the most organised and well-balanced unit for all conditions. South Africa less so.

Not that it is their fault. They have barely played together as a unit in the last two years and it is forgotten that they are fielding a second-string attack, not including Kagiso R. Anrich Nortje and Gerald Coetzee would both be in this team.

Perhaps as a result they have not convinced in the field in this competition or the tri-series that preceded it. Even in handing a beating to England they looked sloppy in the field and the wheels could come off against a New Zealand team which show no let up. In addition, they have had a horrible preparation having to fly to Dubai and then back again because of India's refusal to play in Pakistan. 

New Zealand v South Africa Champions Trophy player bets

Klaasen is 4/15.00 for top South Africa bat. He probably should have won last time out but was pipped by Rassie van der Dussen. It is win-rate value on two-year form. Daryl Mitchell still has appeal at 4/15.00 for the Kiwis. Young is 9/25.50 and that is a bet on win rate. He is well overdue despite a ton in the first match, being beaten by Tom Latham. 

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