India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Tips: Kiwis value to shock India

India v New Zealand 
Sunday 2 March, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy team news

India have injury worries over Rohit Sharma, the skipper, and Mohammad Shami. KL Rahul said he expects both to be fit but whether they need to be is the point. With both teams through to the semi-finals - this contest decides who wins the group - India don't need to risk the key pair.

Rohit, who has a hamstring problem, could be replaced by Rishabh Pant with Rahul moving up to open. Shami's spot would go to Arshdeep Singh. An unforced change could be finding room for another spinner who can bat a bit. Washington Sundar stands by with Harshit Rana the unfortunate one.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Axar, Rahul, Hardik, Jadeja, Harshit, Shami, Kuldeep

New Zealand are expected to make changes with Daryl Mitchell fit again having recovered from illness. A batter would have to make way and Simon Doull, the former Kiwi player, has guaranteed that it will be Will Young.

This is incredibly harsh on Young, who scored a ton in their win over Pakistan. But Doull says Devon Conway is the favoured option for some reason. They don't actually need to lose a batter. Kyle Jamieson, straight into the team and an injury squad call-up, may not be needed on a tired and weary pitch.

Pacers Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke may be enough with a potential of 40 overs of spin available. Mitchell could also bowl pace off. 

Probable XI:  Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy pitch report

The Dubai surface has had plenty of traffic over the last few weeks and months. A stodgy square, which takes spin, is the result. In the two games so far batting has not been easy. India have chased twice with success but some alarm also. A score of around 250-260 could well be enough to win the game. Bangladesh posted 228 and Pakistan 241. 

It could be a bit of a culture shock were New Zealand to bat first having been used to the easier surfaces in Pakistan. Shorting their runs at a par line of 270.5 is an option. If not we should be able to lay on the innings runs for around 2.1011/10. No rain is forecast.

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy match prediction

India are 1.491/2 favourites with New Zealand 3.002/1. For the first time in the tournament India face a team which should be well-suited to the Dubai wicket given their spin options.

New Zealand, therefore, may represent a chunk of value. India are, of course, the right favourites and they should be expected to win. But whether they win in the style of such skinny odds remains to be seen.

At the least New Zealand have the opportunity to make this a choice game in-play, although that may not happen until the second innings. We do think they need to bat first and recognise that a massive score isn't required. 

That ability to take pace off and squeeze, all backed up by the best fielding unit in the competition, could make for a thriller. India's approach should focus on attacking Mitchell Santner.

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy player bets

Ravi Jadeja has a 23% win rate in the last two years for top India bowler. Although his record against the Kiwis is nowt to write home about, the Dubai pitch will keep him keen. There seems no justification for him being as big as 6/17.00 for the win. 

For runs, we do like Mitchell as he returns to the side. His sort of style could be key on such a surface and he has a fine record on these sorts of wickets. He wins just shy of 27% so the 7/24.50 is a little disrespectful. Rohit is due for India but the hamstring could mean he has a stand and deliver approach. The  7/24.50 is value on win rate.

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