Bangladesh v New Zealand Champions Trophy Tips: Rawalpindi runfest incoming

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Bangladesh v New Zealand 
Monday 24 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Bangladesh v New Zealand Champions Trophy team news

Bangladesh will be ruing their hapless start against India. They probably ended 40 or 50 short in Dubai and had they been more solid in the top order instead of being reduced to 35 for five, they might have caused a shock. 

Towhid Hridoy, with a ton, and Jaker Ali, with a half-century, managed a fantastic rearguard. And when Bangladesh took India's fourth wicket at 144 in a chase of 229 they had a squeak. But they had only five bowling options.

They may need a sixth here. Finding room for Mahmudullah, if he is fit, in place of Soumya Sarakar is an option. Mehidy Hasan Miraz could move up to open.

Possible XI: Tanzid, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Shanto, Mushfiqur, Jaker, Hridoy, Mahmudullah, Hossain, Tanzim, Mustafizur, Taskin

New Zealand were strong in beating Pakistan for the third game running to put them in a great position for the semi-finals. Victory here eliminates both Pakistan and Bangladesh. With Will Young scoring a century they may reckon they got their big selection call right. Young had been under pressure for his spot after a handful of low scores in the build-up.

But they could still tweak. Is Rachin Ravindra a better option than Devon Conway? Maybe both could play if they deem Nathan Smith, two overs against Pakistan, as a passenger. Ravindra is a more than useful spin option. It is perhaps ominous for the rest that they could get stronger. 

Possible XI:  Young, Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Henry, O'Rourke

Bangladesh v New Zealand Champions Trophy pitch report

If you thought Lahore was flat for England-Australia then maybe you've not seen the half of it. Rawalpindi has promised to be flatter in the build-up. It is the best batting track in Pakistan. There have been only to games in the last four years but the run rate in those two is 6.3. We have seen in T20 and Tests that it is a bowlers' graveyard. 

The problem we have is that Bangladesh can't really be trusted with the bat. They have the potential to muck it up on any surface. So we're hopeful that the Kiwis bat first and we're able to go long of a fair runs quote. We don't expect the market to be too wise. Going over the par line for the Kiwis at around 325.5 might be an option. On first-innings runs we might have to pay odds-on of around 1.834/5 for maybe ten fewer.

Bangladesh v New Zealand Champions Trophy match prediction

Bangaldesh are 5.409/2 with New Zealand 1.222/9. We don't see much hope for Bangladesh here. Their batting is unlikely to be strong enough to bridge the gap against a mean and efficient Kiwi unit.

It is hard even to strategise for a trade. Given the odds, how many are Bangladesh going to need, say, batting first if this is the jumping off point? We could start theorising about prices on the Kiwis at around 1.705/7 if Bangladesh could get up to 300 but the market is unlikely to move like that. We expect New Zealand to chase anything but the market is likely to agree.

The best way to play New Zealand dominance is the 10/111.91 that they hit more than 16.5 runs off one over. On this sort of track and with their aggression it shouldn't be beyond them. 

Bangladesh v New Zealand Champions Trophy player bets

Najmul Shanto has a 31% win rate on top for Bangladesh over the last two years. He is 9/25.50 for top Bang bat. This might not be the best time to play that market because of the potential for runs to be easy to come by for everybody. The 3/14.00 for fifty might be a better option. The same rules applies for the Kiwis. Back individual milestones. So Kane Williamson and Daryl Mitchell for centuries at 4/15.00 and 5/16.00 respectively make sense. 

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