Afghanistan v South Africa Champions Trophy Tips:Afghans to have Saffers in a spin

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Afghanistan v South Africa
Friday 21 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v South Africa Champions Trophy team news

Afghanistan have been denied the chance to unleash spin whizzkidd Ghazanfar due to injury. As a result they may bat even deeper with  all-rounder Nan Karote potentially batting at No 9. Mind you, having watched the Karachi surface in Pakistan-New Zealand they could pick Noor Ahmad. 

Even with one of Noor or Kharote the Afghans could use four spinners who are more than capable led, of course, by Rashid Khan. With the bat they are reliant on the contrasting style of their openers. Rahmanullah Gurbaz will swashbuckle, Ibrahim Zadran will drop anchor.

Probable XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Rahmat, Hashmatullah, Omarzai, Naib, Nabi, Rashid, Kharote, Farooqi, Fareed/Naveed

South Africa have lost key pacemen in Gerald Coetzee and Anrich Nortje for the tournament but they can still put out a potent line-up of pace. Marco Jansen and Kagiso Rabada are top class and Lungi Ngidi, when not expensive, can be dangerous. They are also well-stocked with the spin of Keshav Maharaj and Tabrais Shamsi.

To find room for Shamsi they are likely to consider leaving out either Tristan Stubbs or Wiaan Mulder. With the bat Ryan Rickleton or Tony de Zorzi will open with Temba Bavuma. They have not been able to find room for Matt Breetzke, who was brilliant in the tri-series in Pakistan. 

Probable XI:  Bavuma, Rickleton/de Zorzi, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Stubbs/Mulder, Jansen, Maharaj, Rabada, Shamsi, Ngidi

Afghanistan v South Africa Champions Trophy pitch report

The Karachi surface didn't look like a road in Pakistan-New Zealand. There was inconsistent bounce in the second-innings, puffs of dust throughout and plenty of mistimed shots. The biggest clue was that the Kiwis bowled 29 overs of spin.

This could be an attritional affair and the par line is likely to be fooled by New Zealand's 321. We would be happy to short South Africa first-innings runs in the 280s. Afghanistan are likely to be 30 fewer.  

Afghanistan v South Africa Champions Trophy match prediction

South Africa lost 2-1 to Afghanistan in Sharjah in September as they failed their trial by spin. Rashid too seven wickets and had an economy of less than three an over. The Proteas should know what is coming. Whether they can do anything about it is doubtful. 

We are keen on the Afghans to qualify from Group B and they can put one foot in the semis with a win here. Simply, the gulf between the teams suggested by the match odds of 1.454/9 South Africa and 3.1511/5 Afghanistan doesn't exist.

The two teams are operating at different temperatures if you will. This South Africa group have barely played together over the last two years and may take time to click. Undercooked might be the word. Afghanistan know each others games inside out. Also, we're not entirely convinced South Africa are well-led. So often they have a rick in them in pressure games and they looked clueless in the field in the tri-series. 

We wouldn't be fazed if this was a flat surface. Afghanistan tucked into the South Africa bowling twice in Sharjah and still had too much. On a better batting wicket their weaker suit with the bat is levelled. At the least Afghanistan trade as favourites.

Afghanistan v South Africa Champions Trophy player bets

Gurbaz is the top-rated Afghan on top-bat market wins in the last two years at 25.8%. He also took a liking to South Africa in that Sharjah series. Sportsbook go 10/34.33. For South Africa, Heinrich Klaasen has a 32% win rate and is 7/24.50. He won in South Africa's last match. 

With the ball, Shamsi has a win rate of 21.4% in 14 matches. It's not a huge study sample but the Karachi surface suggests he deserves more respect than Sportsbook's7/24.50 for top SA bowler. He might pinch it on a dead heat in terms of wickets with runs conceded the tiebreaker. 

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