England v West Indies Third Test Player Tips: Root and Brook combine for wins

• Root has strong Edgbaston record

• Woakes in line for wickets

• Keep faith with brook

• Athanaze gets cheap runs quote

England v West Indies
Friday 26 July, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings runscorer

Harry Brook is proving a source of frustration to the West Indies bowlers. And followers of this column. The Yorkshireman has 195 runs in three innings but he is yet to record a notable win on the markets despite continued support.

At Lord's Brook at least - just about - delivered for first-innings fifties backers. But down went vouchers on top bat and chunky prices for a century. He drew a blank in the first at Trent Bridge, getting out when set to go big. And then in the second his sublime 109 wasn't even enough to win top-bat as he was undone by Joe Root.

Brook has a win rate of 35% in his career. Sportsbook rate him at 9/25.50, a bit more than an 18% chance. So it is a test of patience. the right thing to do, surely, is to back Brook again with the edge, and his form, on our side.

We often make the point about Root being poor value. Yes, he consistently scores runs. And there is no doubt he will be remembered as one of England's top five batters. But he just doesn't win the first-innings market anywhere near consistently enough to warrant support.

His win rate in the last two years is down at 9%. That's no good for a 7/24.50 chance with Sportsbook. What he does boast is an excellent record at Edgbaston.

In eight first-innings at the venue he has passed 50 five times. So instead of betting him to beat everyone else, it may be smarter to put faith in him to manage a first-innings 50 at 11/82.38. In his last 19 first-innings at home (a study sample going back three years) he wins at bang on 42%. The Edgbaston record probably suggests it's a touch of value

Top England 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brook 5/14
Pope 4/18
Duckett 3/18
Crawley 4/21
Root 2/21
Stokes 2/21

Top England first-innings bowler

Chris Woakes looked innocuous in the first Test. But dangerous in the second. The difference, according to Stuart Broad, was a small change in his action and approach to the crease.

Woakes was getting too tight to the stumps at HQ which meant he wasn't getting through his action as well and allowing the batters to pick his line more easily. He solved that for Trent Bridge and claimed first-innings top bowler honours.

It was only his fifth Test appearance in the last two years and as a player who rarely plays abroad, it can be difficult to gauge how effective he is on the markets. Three wins on that market in those five suggest he is a menace but it's a bit rich to start hanging bets on such a stat.

We need more data. If we filter those home Tests in the last five years, Woakes wins five from 16. A hit rate of 31%. With Sportsbook rating at 13/53.60 (just shy of 28% implied probability) for another win, we can make a case that is value.

Throw in the possibility that the Edgbaston wicket and conditions could suit his style, and he's worth a follow. Woakes should also feel right at home with Edgbaston his home ground.

Top England 1st innings wicket-taker last 2 years wins/matches

Woakes 3/5
Bashir 2/5
Wood 1/9
Stokes 1/21
Root 1/21

Top West Indies first-innings runscorer

Alick Athanaze has looked a million bucks in this series. But, a bit like Harry Brook, punters are yet to profit. He looked bang on course for a win on the tops market at Trent Bridge but was pipped by a Kavem Hodge century.

Athanaze was extremely unlucky. Hodge hogged the strike with the pair together at the crease and Athanaze lost some rhythm. His 82 from 92 had been fluid and wonderful to watch before falling to Ben Stokes.

Sportsbook don't appear to have caught on to his ability and an overs runs quote of 17.5 at 5/61.84 is an insult to his ability. it should be a relatively straightforward win.

Top West Indies 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brathwaite 2/12
J Holder 1/10
Da Silva 1/12
McKenzie 1/5

Top West Indies 1st innings wicket-taker last 2 years wins/matches

A Joseph 3/12
S Joseph 1/4
Motie 1/5
Holder 0/10

Now read more of the the best Cricket Tips here!