England v South Africa Third T20 Player Tips: Way to go Mo

England v South Africa
Sunday 31 July, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Salt sweet

There is value on batting order for England - twice. Firstly, could Jason Roy be dropped to give Phil Salt a run? If so Salt looks chunky at 9/2 for top England bat and 9/1 for top match bat.

Roy's form has been a concern all summer. We do not include - and perhaps nor do England - his ton against Netherlands. Since then he has not passed fifty in ten innings.

But weight of runs is not a concern for a player like Roy. So long as he is being aggressive and striking at a high rate, his position is relatively safe.

That has not been happening. Only once in those knocks has he struck at a speed which would acceptable; 41 from 31 against India at Old Trafford in the third ODI.

Sportsbook go 10/11 that Roy goes under 20.5 runs. That's quite a low quote for a player of his reputation. Shorting him at the numbers would have won 17 times in the last 28 (two years). That's an edge of more than nine per cent. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Salt is an opener by specialism. He did so for Lancashire in the Blast and in six innings from 12 struck at more than 140.

Secondly, Moeen Ali again catches the eye. It was thought that if Dawid Malan fell cheaply Mo would be promoted to No 4 as England desperately need a left-hander at the crease following the absences of Ben Stokes and Eoin Morgan. Moeen is 15/2. That's very big indeed for a potential No 4.

We should also mention Sam Curran at 22/1. What if England dropped Roy and opened with either Jonny Bairstow or Dawid Malan. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that as a left-hander with an excellent strike rate, he gets promoted. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Top England wins/matches last two years
Roy 6/31
Malan 10/36
Buttler 7/27
Bairstow 6/35
Moeen 6/29
Livingstone 2/20
Jordan 1/40
Rashid 0/38

Top bowler wins/matches
Jordan 6 5t/39
Rashid 5 8t/35
Moeen 1 2t/26

Moeen strong on win rate and order

It has not been a good summer for following batters on win rate. And by that mean we taking prices which are wrong on how often a batsman wins the market (see the data above for England).

Jos Buttler is a player who is overdue. But his edge (win rate versus implied probability from Sportsbook odds) has diminished game-by-game. It's now at just 0.9% with a price-boosted 3/1. His strong form suggests he is worth an interest.

Dawid Malan at least has a win in the last T20 against India. But he has been cut to 7/2 despite two blanks. That's an edge of 5.5%.

The biggest edge comes with Moeen. A whopping 9.5%. Given our discussion above about batting higher, he would be the shrewd choice. The 17/1 that he is top match bat is also chunky.

Only one South Africa is value on our data. That's Aiden Markram at 9/2. His win rate, average and strike rate is all insane. Just like the decision not to pick. Money back if he sits out again. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Top South Africa bat wins/matches last two years
Markram 8/17
QDK 5/20
RVD 5/23
Miller 2/22
Klaasen 2/21

Top South Africa bowler wins/matches last two years
Rabada 2 2t/22
Shamsi 4 6t/31
Nortje 2 3t/17
Ngidi 4 t/15
Phelukawayo 1 t/10
Pretorius 3 2t/16
t=tie