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Thursday 27 August, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports
England v Pakistan second Test team news
England's squad options have been dropping like bar flies all summer. Brydon Carse is the latest to be carpeted for being unable to go out for an evening and behave himself. He is out of the squad?
What is it about these entitled, monied sorts who can't stay out of nightclubs? It's not even as if they're so good that constant cause for celebration is a peril of the job.
Pakistan are unlikely to be good enough to use England's unhappiness for their benefit. But ruthless teams are. Just ask New Zealand.
Sonny Baker has been added to the group in place of Carse. The question for selection otherwise for England is whether they pick Shoaib Bashir, the spinner. It will probably be a short debate and the answer will be no. We expect England to be unchanged.
Probable XI: Duckett, Gay, Cox, Root, brook, Lawrence, Smith, Atkinson, Robinson, Archer, Tongue
Pakistan will hope that Babar Azam is fit to come back into the team after missing the first Test with a finger problem. It will mean a reshuffle for their batting order but needs must following an innings defeat.
To make room, Abdullah Shafique, who looked organised in Leeds, may return to his normal opening position. That means Azan Awais may have to miss out.
There could be other changes as Pakistan look to add batting depth. Aamer Jamal would seem an obvious selection. His all-round abilities and hard work should be beneficial. Indeed, he has a good record with the ball away from home and may find conditions to his liking. Mohhamed Ali, the pacer, could come out. Ali was struggling to hit the crease in Leeds when conditions should have been ideal.
Probable XI: Imam, Shafiqe, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Salman, Rizwan, Jamal, Ali Usman, Shahzad, Abbas
England v Pakistan second Test pitch report
Lord's could well be tricky to bat on again in the first-innings. The heat wave is over (for now) and leaden skies are a possibility with the cooler temperatures. Pakistan should feel very nervous about having to bat first. Seam and swing, that they struggled against in Leeds, is likely on the menu.
The average runs per wicket by innings at Lord's
1st inns 26.7
2nd 32
3rd 24
4th 27
It is extremely unusual for a venue to have a higher fourth-innings average than the first. It just highlights the potential for bowlers to dominate. Being prepared to short runs has to be the way to go.
Pakistan will be the most obvious choice and using that first-innings average as a guide may help. It may be, however, that their runs quote might not get much above 250 before a ball is bowled in the first dig. Instead one may have to hope for a partnership at some stage.
With this Pakistan team we have to redefine the term. Usually it might mean 40 or 50 runs but with this lot bring it down to 20 or 30. The first match innings scores for tourists in the last five Tests reinforce the argument: 212 (Australia), 121 (West Indies), 416 (Australia), 172 (Ireland), 132 (New Zealand).
England may not escape a collapse. Their runs will be much higher in the 300s and, statistically, those are shorts too. Remember they were rolled for 140 v the Kiwis in June.
England v Pakistan second Test match predictions
England, of course, got back up off the canvas to win that Test versus New Zealand. They should get the win here, which will be insufferable in its dominance because of the arrogant pundits gleefully smashing Pakistan as the 'worst side in the world'. A reminder that, in terms of the WTC table, this is seventh versus ninth.
Those critics of Pakistan have been pretty quiet in calling out India's choke-grip on Pakistan talent, denying them the opportunity to play in franchise leagues, stunting development. Which is precisely the aim. They've also been pretty quiet as India, Australia and England continually raid resources to the detriment of others, weakening the Test product.
There is an imbalance off-the-field as there is on it. England are prohibitively short but there are ways to make the gulf in ability pay.
Derivative England win markets are the best option. They are 5/61.84 to win, hit most match fours and sixes. That may be an issue if they only bat once but, again, the Pakistan batters may not even hang around long enough over two digs.
The standout is the 7/18.00 that England win on day three. The media overs required at HQ make this the most likely result and the only concern may be that Pakistan don't have the stickability to make it last that long.
There is the option for a trade on Pakistan with Mohammad Abbas, who could have it on string, teaming up with Jamal to do their own damage. But a trade from the heights of 8.007/1 to 9.008/1 on the Betfair Exchange would require them bowling first. Chopping three or four points from that price doesn't seem beyond them if conditions suit. it would then be a lay back, doubling the stake from the original back.
Back England to win on day 3