Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI Tips: Sri Lanka value for an upset but 11/4 Babar and 3/1 Kusal the stand outs

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Tuesday 27 October, 08.00
TV: Sky Sports

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI team news

Pakistan shuffled their pack against England on Sunday. Good job, too, as it was the recalled Shadab Khan who produced a brilliant innings for another outrageous come-from-behind result in the tri-series.

Chasing just 241, Pakistan looked beaten at 154 for nine only for Shadab and Haris Rauf to break records with a tenth-wicket stand. Shadab hit an unbeaten 113. Even at the death there was drama as England thought they had the win with Shadab given lbw before reaching his ton. There were hand shakes all round and Shadab was walking off before the faintest of inside edges saved him.

The hosts have already confirmed their spot in the final so the opportunity to test bench strength is there. Razaullah came in for Naseem Shah. Abrar Ahmed and Sufiyan Moqim, specialist spinners, both await a chance.

Possible XI: Fakhar, Ayub, Babar, Baig, Agha, Hasan, Arafat, Shadab, Shaheen, Razaullah, Rauf

Sri Lanka need to win one of their two remaining games  to make the final. They should be full of confidence after chasing 430 to trump Harry Brook's double ton in Rawalpindi.

Pavan Rathanayake's century was the show stealer but Avishka Fernando, Dasun Shanaka and janoith Liyanage all made half centuries in the top six.

With the ball only Asitha Fernando and Dunith Wellalage could hold their heads high. The Lankans may consider tweaking their bowling unit if they are cool-headed in the chaos. Dilshan Madushanka has taken two for 156 so he could be vulnerable to a Dushmantha Chameera recall.

Sahan Arachige has been a passenger so far, contributing with neither bat or ball. He could also swap out for Chameera. Or they could add batting depth, finding room for an extra batter in Kamil Mishara. Mishara would bat No 3 with everyone else moving down a slot

Possible XI: Avishka, Kamindu, Mishara, Kusal, Rathanayake, Shanaka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Chameera, Malinga, Asitha

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI pitch report 

The surface in Lahore looked pretty good for batting despite the low totals in Pakistan-England. After all, if the tenth-wicket partnership can put on 89 it can't be that bad. There had been historic runs at the Gaddafi Stadium. The run rate from the day-night filter from 13 matches is a shade under six an over. Three matches from the last seven have seen both teams reach 300.

There is also a possible toss bias for the side batting first. Although Pakistan busted the trend (now at seven from 13), there has to be an asterisk by that result as surely few teams can have been as brainless as England in the field.

Sportsbook may have overreacted to the low-scores in the opening game on this leg of the series. Sri Lanka have the cheapest total match runs quote at 250.5 and that looks an overs play at 10/111.91.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI match prediction 

Pakistan are as short as 1.538/15 on the Betfair Exchange at the time of writing so it is fair to reckon that we get a bit more than 2.3811/8 on Sri Lanka, who need the win far more.

It is a golden rule of cricket betting that Pakistan should be swerved at significant odds-on. Doubly so in what is a dead rubber for them. There is nothing wrong with keeping that hint of a toss bias onside, though, if you feel you need the extra security with Sri Lanka.

It is a curious game. Both teams will feel they have momentum and be full of confidence. This despite, let's not forget, significantly flawed performances last time out; Pakistan with their batting display in what should have been an easy chase against England and Sri Lanka's dreadful attempt to keep England quiet in Pindi.

That could make for another topsy-turvy affair. Again, with the toss onside, trading Sri Lanka on the Betfair Exchange to flip these odds for green on both side is a perfectly acceptable strategy and one that should come off.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI player tips 

We are in the waiting room for a big performance from Kusal Mendis. Sri Lanka's best batter missed out on the run glut in 'Pindi, being run out before scoring a single run. One could hardly argue he is in chronic form. The trends suggest a big score should be just around the corner so we're happy to start showing faith on the top batsman market. The Betfair Sportsbook offers 3/14.00. For Pakistan, Babar Azam is also overdue and the 11/43.75 should prove popular.

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