South Africa v Australia Third Test Tips: Don't rule out a typical Aussie comeback in the decider

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Tuesday 27 October, 08.30
TV: Sky Sports

South Africa v Australia third Test team news

South Africa have to make an enforced change to their winning XI following a groin injury to Anrich Nortje. Gerald Coetzee, has been given the nod.

It seems harsh on dane Paterson not to get a game. He felt like the man in possession at the start of the series and has produced some strong performances for the South Africans, using all of his experience. He was not the 'sexy' pick because he hits line and length at moderate speeds. But isn't all that is required against this Australia batting line-up? Paterson is a Cape Town local, too.

coetzee's superior batting may have proved decisive. Corbin Bosch was another option. batter Tony de Zorzi is out again with a hamstring problem so opening batter Marques Ackerman retains his spot.

Probable XI: Markram, Ackerman, Bedingham, Bavuma, Breetzke, Rickleton, Mulder, Jansen, Harmer, Rabada, Coetzee

Australia are in a mess after a chastening defeat in Port Elizabeth, going down by an innings and 31 runs. They continue to be dogged by top-order batting failures and must surely try to make amends with team changes.

Marnus Labuschagne's run of low scores continued. His Test career, though, will most likely be paused due to shot-selection in the second-innings father than the fails. It was brainless hoik to hole out with the Aussies under pressure.

Cameron Green is fit again to return but using him at No 3 would be a risk given that it is clear his natural home is in the middle order. So further surgery is required. It seems as though Nic Maddinson, who doesn't look like a Test player, has been dropped with Matt Renshaw to open. That would free up a slot for Josh Inglis to first down of labuschagne was jettisoned. labuschagne could survive still if Steve smith fails a fitness test on his back.

The visitors must also keep faith with Scott Boland, who is now returning at even money on top bowler in his last ten Tests. It is between him and Nathan Lyon for the final slot but Josh Hazlewood shouldn't be getting ahead of Boland automatically these days.

Possible XI: Head, Renshaw, Inglis/Labuschagne, Smith, Green, Carey, Webster, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Lyon

South Africa v Australia third Test pitch report 

There have been only three Tests in the last five years in Cape Town so extending the study filter to ten years gives us eight Tests to work with. Five of those have been won by the side batting first, hinting at a wicket that deteriorates, although the numbers are no especially stark.

Cape Town average runs per wkt by innings

1st 29
2nd 22
3rd 30
4th 23

In January 2025, SA made 616 batting first against Pakistan, the year before they were rolled for 55 versus India. There was only one 50 in the match and that was a remarkable ton by Markram in South Africa's second innings.

The potential for bowlers dominating is real. In four first-class matches in the most recent domestic season, there have been eight all-out totals of under 300. And a 306, too.

Overheads may dictate the balance of play. The forecast for the first morning is bright sunshine. One can expect the toss winner to bat first. The weather for all five days is set fair so a result looks almost guaranteed.

South Africa v Australia third Test match prediction 

South Africa are 2.0621/20 with Australia 2.3611/8 and the draw 11.0010/1 on the Betfair Exchange. Momentum and confidence is most definitely with the home side. But writing off Australia can be a dangerous game.

Back-to-back disasters for Australia are rare indeed. Only once in the last two years have they lost two in a row and that was in alien conditions in Nagpur and Delhi respectively. Extending the study to the last ten years and the only other time they have lost two-in-a-row in the same series was the infamous 2018 contest between these sides.

They are nothing if not hard to beat and it wouldn't be in the least surprising that rumours of their demise were being laughed off within the camp. Indeed, the notion that they are fretting and panicked probably couldn't be further from the truth. The attitude in Australia teams is to go again and fight even harder.

And at the end of the day, Test matches are won by the team with the best bowling unit. South Africa are unsure of their best line-up even with a fit-again Kagiso Rabada a major boost. There is precious little evidence that pat Cummins and Mitch Starc have suddenly become bad bowlers while a decision on the right combination from Boland, Lyon and Hazlewood is a nice problem to have.

Australia are the value at odds-against and if they bat first under clear skies South Africa could feel under pressure with the probability that batting gets tougher as the match goes on.

South Africa v Australia third Test player tips 

Boland seems to be one unaffected by the noise and drama. He rocked up to PE and took five-for without a fuss or breaking sweat. His remarkable consistency means he should have more respect on the top bowler market. As stated, it's five wins in ten for him and that win rate deserves our support. The 5/23.50 is a wager. There's not a huge amount to get excited about elsewhere in terms of win rate aside from Alex Carey at 11.251/5. he should be closer to the 4/15.00 mark on the same rational as Boland so a small interest is advised.

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