England

England v New Zealand Fourth T20 Tips: Back first innings century at 6/1

Jonny Bairstow
Bairstow is boosted to 11/4 for top bat

Ed Hawkins says batting first on a flat Trent Bridge will be the key factor in the series decider on Tuesday


England v New Zealand
Tuesday 5 September, 18:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v New Zealand team news

England are 2-1 up with one to play and we're about to find out how much they really want the series win. If they're set on success, surely Jos Buttler returns to the opening berth instead of the underwhelming Will Jacks?

If they want to continue to experiment, however, Ben Duckett may come in to open with Jonny Bairstow. Sam Curran, who sat out defeat in Birmingham, could replace Chris Jordan and Brydon Carse may come back in for Luke Wood.

Adil Rashid seems like a fixture at this stage and if Rehan Ahmed was going to get a game it would have most likely have been game three.

Possible XI: Bairstow, Duckett, Malan, Brook, Buttler, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Carse, Rashid, Atkinson

New Zealand found the Edgbaston surface to their liking. They rattled up 202 with Finn Allen and Glen Phillips doing the damage.

They then rolled England for 128 with the returned Kyle Jamieson, in for Lockie Ferguson, taking three wickets. Ish Sodhi also picked up three.

The Kiwis are expected to go with the same XI but Mark Chapman could be considered vulnerable with Cole McConchie or Rachin Ravindra available. Matt Herny replaced Adam Milne.

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Seifert, Phillips, Chapman, Mitchell, Santner, Jamieson, Southee, Sodhi, Henry

England v New Zealand pitch report

With a high par line expected it's worth noting that ten of the last 14 in the Blast and internationals at Trent Bridge in first-innings have busted 170. England posted 215 against India in July last year.

There have been some massive scores in that sequence with 200 breached four times. If England were to bat first we'd be happy to bet them to go over 176.5 and looks for prices of 180, 190 and 200 or more. The former could be available at 2.1011/10 and the latter at 3.002/1. Unsurprisingly nine have been won by the team batting first.

Back England 180 or more 1st inns runs @ 2.1011/10

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England v New Zealand match odds

England are 1.574/7 with New Zealand 2.727/4. It's short in the context of game three, which saw the Kiwis hit back spectacularly, and short perhaps given the likely conditions.

The toss is crucial. If the Kiwis can bat first they should be capable of flipping these odds to favourite status. Now they have found their mojo with good striking in Birmingham, they will be delighted to be on another flat one.

If England bat first, however, we expect them to score rapidly. New Zealand's price should drift at the same rate. The weather forecast is good, by the way.

England v New Zealand player bets

The batters should be to the fore here. Jonny Bairstow is boosted to 11/43.75 for top bat with Devon Conway the same for the Kiwis at 3/14.00. Buttler is into 13/53.60 post our winner at 7/18.00 in Edgbaston. Harry Brook has appeal at 4/15.00. Likewise Phillips at the same price for New Zealand.

Converting top bats into man of the match is not a great leap. It should go to the top batter from the team that bats first. Brook and Phillips stick out at 15/28.50 and 10/111.00. An easier option may be having a sensible stake on first-innings century at 6/17.00.

Back first-innings century @ 6/17.00

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Recommended bets

Ed Hawkins P-L

2023: +30.79

2022: +16.79

2021: +29.41pts

2020: +5.91pts

2019: +37.25pts

2018: +23.53pts

2017: +12pts

2016: +18.1pts

2015: +38pts

2014: +31.5pts

2013: +25pt

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