England v Australia Third ODI Tips: Rain points to bowler shootout

Tuesday 24 September 12:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v Australia Third ODI team news

England could return Jofra Archer to the line-up as they continue to manage his workload after injuries. He comes back into a team low on confidence after two miserable performances with ball and then bat.

The hosts were shellacked at Trent Bridge and failed to defend 315. In Leeds, a chase of just 270 would have been a walk in the park for the glory teams. Not now. Only cameos from Jacob Bethell and Jamie Smith gave them feint hope. They were well outclassed again, as you would expect from a team which is in transition.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Jacks, Brook, Smith, Livingstone, Bethell, Carse, Rashid, Potts, Archer

Australia brought back Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc for Headingley and the pair took five wickets between them. One suspects they keep going to wrap up the series in as fast a time as possible before returning to test bench strength.

Sean Abbott and Ben Dwarshuis had made way for game two. Glenn Maxwell replaced Cameron Green. If there is some form of rotation, it could be that Aaron Hardie misses out this time with Abbott or Green back. Mitch Marsh may return to the opening role after Matt Short was promoted on his 'home' The Hundred ground.

Possible XI: Head, Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne, Short, Maxwell, Carey, Abbott, Starc, Zampa, Hazlewood

England v Australia Third ODI pitch report

There have been six ODI since 2018 at the Riverside. Four first-innings have busted 300. So if all was fair it should be a good batting track. However, the weather in the north east has been poor. There were rain warnings in place for Monday so there will have to be a major mop-up job to get the ground fit for play.

There is also some rain forecast for gameday. Taken in isolation one wouldn't normally expect a loss in overs from a forecast for one day but the match is dependant on how good drainage is. A new system was installed in 2010 but we have to wait and see. The innings runs market will be settled if 20 overs are completed. The 50-overs par line has to have 50 overs (not including a team bowled out).

England v Australia Third ODI match prediction

England are 2.466/4 with Australia 1.674/6. Those prices are resolute despite the Aussies proving to be a cut above. No surprise as they are the world champs and England are in a state of flux.

The stubborness of the market could be down to expectation that this could be a straight shootout between the bowlers in helpful conditions. In other words, the damp and seam and swing make it a leveller.

There may be more focus on the completed match market which says no at 2.1011/10. No fifty in the match may be an early shout at 14/115.00 worth taking if the wet stuff and reduced overs have a big impact.

England v Australia Third ODI player bets

Twenty-five overs are required for a top bat and bowler bet to stand with Sportsbook. Any reduction in overs will void the player performance markets. At this stage with seam and swing potentially in the mix, we're looking at lower order top-bat wins, possibly with 30 or 40 on the board enough for a win. For England, Brydon Carse has some potential at 30/131.00 while Archer at 90/191.00 might be a little toppy. For the Aussies Abbott and Starc are eyecatching at 45/146.00 and 75/176.00 respectively.

We will revisit the top bowler prices as we're keen not to miss Adam Zampa's win at 16/54.20. But we should be wary that conditions could make his spin less potent than pace.

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