Hawk Eye on England v Australia First ODI: Warner ready to fire

David Warner
Warner is underrated

Ed Hawkins explains why only one Aussie is worth following for runs at Old Trafford on Friday...

"When we are faced with such a gifted front three in the betting, focussing on win rates is one of the best ways to split players up"

England v Australia
Friday 11 September, 13:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

How to split a fine top three?

Love him or hate him, you can't argue with David Warner's appeal as a top-bat wager in 50-over internationals. He is Australia's Mr Consistent, making stellar players like Aaron Finch and Steve Smith look like also-rans.

Warner has nine wins in his last 29 matches, that's almost twice as many as Smith over the same number of games. Of course, Finch has played more in the last two-and-a-bit years because of the pair's ban for ball tampering but he only matches Warner on wins over 45 matches.

They key to any wager, naturally, is price. Sportsbook go 11/4 that Warner cops. Compared to his win rate it's too big. There are 4.3% points in our favour. Smith's win rate is 13.7% and Finch's 20%. In terms of their prices and the edge they give to the bookies, Smith at 3/1 is -11.3% and Finch at the same price is -5%.

When we are faced with such a gifted front three in the betting, focusing on win rates is one of the best ways to split players up. Many punters will reckon that Finch's record against England (as discussed in the match preview) scrubs out the difference and that is fair enough.

A comfort rug is Warner's record at Old Trafford. Last summer in the World Cup he whacked 122 in a losing cause against South Africa. So he should have a good vibe about the place when he goes out to bat.

Another Aussie who will feel comfortable is Josh Hazlewood. We never like to use red-ball form to stack up a white-ball bet so the only reason we should take note of Hazelwood's six wickets on the surface in the last Ashes series is to give him a psychological boost.

Most important is Hazlewood's record for top Australia bowler. Currently he is outperforming Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc with four wins in 14. Although the study period is on the thin side, Hazlewood has enough about him to suggest he should be shorter than 7/2.

Australia top bat wins/matches
Finch 9 t/45
Maxwell 2/45
Stoinis 2/38
Smith 4/29
Warner 9/29
Carey 1/8

Australia top bowler wins/matches
Hazlewood 4 2t/14
Starc 5 3t/24
NCN 3 1t/15
Kane 1 3t/15
Cummins 6 4t/34
Zampa 4 5t/32

How to split a fine top three?

Not for the first time there are no mistakes on the tops market for England's players that we can take advantage of. Instead we must reiterate that popular picks like Jason Roy and Joe Root are terrible wagers.

Look at the respective win rates of the two on our charts below. Roy is going off at 7/2 for top England bat and Root at 3/1. The number of times they actually win you money suggest they should be 9/2 and 11/2 respectively. And, by the way, we are well aware at how little Sportsbook oddscompliers rate Roy so although it might look big - and they will be biggest in the entire market - don't get sucked in.

We also give a nod to poor value on Jofra Archer at 5/2 for top England bowler. Adil Rashid is returning money (wins outright or dead heats) 30% of the time. He is 3/1.

England top bat wins/matches
Bairstow 11 1t/54
Morgan 8/60
Root 9 1t/60
Roy 9/50
Ali 1/54
Buttler 6 1t/54
Woakes 1/37
Billings 1/7

England top bowler wins/matches
Rashid 7 11t/60
Root 4t/60
Woakes 6 7t/39
Wood 2 5t/38
Ali 3 5t/52
T Curran 3 1t/21
Archer 1 5t/13
Mahmood 0/4

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